Poll points to Brexit election

• By Nick Powell

Beyond the our opinion poll's headline finding that the Conservatives remain ahead in Wales, challenging Labour's near-century long dominance of Welsh politics, there are clues to why such a seismic shift could be underway.

People were asked to name the three most important issues in this election -and Brexit easily came top, ahead of more traditional concerns about the NHS, immigration and the economy. And the Conservatives have a commanding lead on the question which party can best handle Britain's exit from the European Union.

At Welsh Labour's campaign launch this morning, First Minister Carwyn Jones addressed Labour's need to get across a clear message on Brexit -and to get voters thinking about other issues. He said this election must be about what he called "seven years of Tory failure".

Clearly that's an argument that many voters aren't buying at the moment but our poll did have some crumbs of comfort for Carwyn Jones. He has just nudged ahead of Theresa May as the political leader most liked by Welsh voters. The ratings are out of 10 but even getting close to 5 out of 10 is a significant achievement for a politician.

Our poll also suggests that Labour would find itself in a rather better position if this was an Assembly election, although one more its the Conservatives who are looking at a record level of support.

Voters seem to be increasingly willing to switch their votes depending on the level of government being chosen. Our last poll suggested that Labour was still ahead when it came to electing local councillors, as indeed was the case in last Thursday's council elections in Wales.

• The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’sWales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1018 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 5-7 May 2017