Football and maths: Why Wales are ALMOST guaranteed of Euro 2016 qualification - and what needs to happen next
Wales are preparing for their final two Euro 2016 qualifying games - with a place at their first major tournament finals in more than 50 years now within touching distance.
Of course, a goalless draw against Israel last month meant football fans have had another month to wait - but Chris Coleman's men are still in pole position in Group B, after eight qualifiers unbeaten.
Read More: Wales frustrated by Israel to keep Euro 2016 party on hold
A draw either away against Bosnia-Herzegovina on Saturday night, or at home against Andorra next Tuesday, will earn Coleman's side the point they need to guarantee a place at the European Championships in France next summer.
But, Wales could still qualify on Saturday even if they lose in Bosnia - and even if the unthinkable happens and they lose to minnows Andorra, are still quite likely to be at Euro 2016.
Here's why...
The European Championships have been expanded this time around, so 24 teams will compete in France, including the hosts.
The top two teams from each group will qualify automatically, as well as the best third-placed team from across the nine groups.
The other eight third-placed teams will go into the play-offs, to decide the final four places at the tournament.
The current table
It's the normal three points for a win, and one for a draw.
If teams are level on points at the end of the group, their head-to-head record is what separates them.
Read More: Full story of Wales' remarkable rise - from 117th to world's top 10
The straightforward way of doing things...
It really is very simple. Wales need a draw (or a victory) from either of their last two games to be sure of qualification.
Their first chance to get the single point they need is against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Zenica on Saturday night.
It is a tough away assignment. The two sides drew 0-0 in Cardiff a year ago, Bosnia-Herzegovina are ranked 30th in the world, but could be without star striker Edin Dzeko.
Read More: Gareth Bale included in Wales squad after injury
If they still need it, Wales have another chance against Andorra at the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday night.
It is as simple as they come - Andorra are ranked 205th (out of 208) in the world, and have lost all eight qualifying games so far.
Wales would not even need to beat them - just a draw would do.
If Coleman's side ended on 19 points, Israel could still draw level - but Wales would get through because of a better head-to-head record.
Why Saturday night could still bring celebration...
If Wales lose to Bosnia-Herzegovina on Saturday, they could still be celebrating that very night - depending on the game between Israel and Cyprus in Jerusalem.
Israel need to win. Anything less will see Wales through, irrelevant of their own result.
And Belgium could do us a favour on Tuesday...
Belgium will qualify themselves if they beat minnows Andorra on Saturday.
If Wales fail to get a point from either of their games, and Israel beat Cyprus on Saturday, then Israel will also have to beat Belgium in Brussels on Tuesday night to deny Wales.
If Israel don't manage to secure victory over the Belgians, who are ranked third in the world and unbeaten at home so far, then Wales will qualify for Euro 2016 anyway.
And that's not the end of it...
If Wales did end up finishing third behind Belgium and Israel, they are still in with a good chance.
They could qualify automatically as the best third-placed team from the nine groups - dependent on a lot of other results that we really can't work through here!
Even if they didn't do that, they would have one last chance in a two-legged play-off against one of the other third-placed teams, with the winner earning one of the final spots in France.
So Wales are pretty much there...
Yes - it is very unlikely that Wales won't qualify for Euro 2016 from this position.
But, after decades of disappointment and near-misses, many fans will be desperately waiting until it is mathematically certain - and they can book their places in France next summer.
Still not had enough? Click here for Euro 2016 qualification explained