Welsh income tax referendum "difficult to win"

The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll gives opponents of devolving income tax powers to the Welsh Government a clear lead in the referendum that is required by law. 34% are in favour but 42% against, with the rest undecided or unwilling to vote.

That 8% lead is down on the 12% lead for a "no" vote last month but suggests it would be a tough battle if the Welsh Government heeded calls from Prime Minister David Cameron and Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb and held the referendum, with both men promising to campaign for a "yes" vote.

Earlier polls had shown a "no" lead of just 1% or 2%, or even a 1% "yes" lead back in early March, so there seems to have been a shift in opinion. Conservative ministers appear to have been particularly unsuccessful at persuading their own supporters. Two-thirds of people who voted Conservative in May say they'd vote against Welsh income tax.

UKIP and Liberal Democrat voters are also against, though not quite so overwhelmingly. Two-thirds of Plaid Cymru voters back the idea, which also has more modest support from Labour voters. The voting expert who analyses the Welsh Political Barometer polling data says the message is clear.

Last night on Sharp End, the Conservative AM Russell George became the latest Welsh politician to raise the possibility of changing the law so that income tax powers could be devolved without a referendum.

In the case of the referendum that it seems will definitely take place -on the UK's membership of the European Union, Welsh views also seem settled. in the latest poll, 44% are in favour and 37% against. That 7% lead is in line with most polls this year.