What our poll means for the parties' chances tomorrow

Today’s Welsh Political Barometer poll is our final one of this general election campaign. With polling stations opening in less than twenty-four hours, how do the parties in Wales stand on the eve of this, most unpredictable general election? And how has support for the different parties changed across the course of the campaign?

Our new poll was carried out by YouGov as late as possible – between Monday and this morning. Here are the figures for general election voting intention (I’ve put in brackets how our poll figures compare with the vote-share won by each party in Wales in the May 2010 election):

• Labour: 39% (+3%)

• Conservatives: 25% (-1%)

• Plaid Cymru: 13% (+2%)

• UKIP: 12% (+9%)

• Liberal Democrats: 8% (-12%)

• Greens: 2% (+2%)

This is the fifth poll that YouGov have carried out in Wales since the start of the election campaign. How much has support for the parties changed? The following table shows how support has ebbed and flowed since our late-March Barometer poll:

If we apply the swings implied by this poll from the May 2010 general election result uniformly across Wales, this produces the following outcome in terms of parliamentary seats:

• Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives)

• Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats)

• Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)

• Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (losing both Cardiff Central and Brecon &Radnor, and holding on only to Ceredigion)

This final poll suggests that the campaign has had only a limited impact in terms of changing the mind of the Welsh voters. Labour’s support has been stable throughout the campaign, at a level a few points above their performance in 2010. This suggests that Labour should be in good shape to hold most, if not all, of the seats that they won in 2010; however they may gain fewer seats in Wales than they would need in order to be on course for a parliamentary majority in the Commons.

The poll also provides yet further confirmation that Conservative support in Wales remains robust at a level that should help the Tories retain the vast majority of the seats that they won in Wales in 2010.

Two parties have the polls suggest, made some progress during the campaign. One, perhaps surprisingly, is the Liberal Democrats. While their overall support remains well below half of the level they won five years ago, they are up three points on the start of the campaign. If this rise in support is concentrated in their existing seats, then the Lib-Dems may well have a chance of hanging on to all three of them.

The one party that has made some, modest progress is Plaid Cymru. This is the second successive poll that has placed them – narrowly –ahead of UKIP in third place, and they are up four points on their low-point in a poll early in the campaign. Nonetheless, on uniform swings Plaid would still be struggling to add to its current three seats.

The poll adds further evidence that UKIP’s support is now several points below its highpoint last autumn. It also suggests that the Greens have had a poor campaign. Neither party would now appear to have realistic hopes of winning a parliamentary seat in Wales in 2015.

Still, this is only an opinion poll. As we all know the only poll that really counts is the one that is coming tomorrow. There’s not long to wait now!

• Professor Roger Scully is Professor of Political Science at the Wales Governance Centre and Director of Research, Politics of Cardiff University.