View From Stormont: What will Irish voters decide in November's general election?

Will the people of the Republic of Ireland choose to stick with the latest coalition of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens?

Or, will voters elect a new coalition government involving Sinn Fein?

This had once seemed very likely as Sinn Fein gained almost 40 seats in the last election and could have claimed more if they fielded more candidates, but now opinion polls show a drop in popularity.

They don’t have long to decide - with polling in less than three weeks.

Housing is undoubtedly one of this election's key issues, while immigration is also a major talking point.

A total of 14,500 people are homeless in the Republic, and there are 6,000 asylum seekers in direct provision and there have been some anti-immigration protests of late with attendees holding signs with slogans like "Ireland is full".

Charity Depaul believes this cannot be solved with homes alone, but needs to go in tandem with adequate provision of mental health, drug and alcohol support.

David Carroll is CEO of the all-island charity.

"There is a really good opportunity for the next Dail to remove the scourge of homelessness," he said.

"We think that the recent Apple windfall [monies] should be used to invest heavily in housing supply."

Housing is not just a consumer issue but one for industry too.

“We think government needs to double down and build about half of all houses, which we reckon is about 30,000 a year in the Greater Dublin area,” said Aebhric McGibney of Dublin Chamber of Commerce.

“The government also needs to provide that enabling infrastructure.

"They need to make sure there's enough water, enough public transport and things like softer services such as childcare and education services to allow the commuter towns around Dublin to grow and thrive, to connect in to where the jobs are.”

DCU professor Dr Eoin O'Malley expects to see "an election which is framed as, vote for change or an election as this is too risky, you can't afford to change horses midstream."

He said: "The economy in the Republic is doing very well and so a lot of the things are set up for the government to be returned."

Dr O'Malley said that he expects the housing issue to be addressed alongside immigration, with a possible surge in the popularity of independent candidates.

"I don't think any of the parties are minded to bring it up, which is probably then what's going to happen is the independents will bring that up and some of these kind of smaller, radical, far right parties, they'll be kind of knocking on the door and sort of pushing those sorts of issues," he said.

This election campaign will be short and intense.

Irish Times Political Editor Pat Leahy says that matters not.

"I was looking at the data from the exit poll at the last election, and half of all voters made up their minds how to vote in the three weeks of that election campaign, so campaigns matter and this one will matter," he told View from Stormont.

"If we were talking about this a year ago, we would have both said Sinn Fein looks like a cert to be in the next government and certainly to be the largest party in the next Dail.

"But all that has changed in the last year. We've seen a slump in Sinn Fein's support, disastrous results for them in the local and European elections. So I think it's all up in the air. 

"There are nine parties contesting this election, plus a whole load of independents. Our political system has become very fractured in the last two decades.

"If you look at the polls, Fine Gael have a little bit of edge.

"Fianna Fail are in the low twenties, Sinn Fein are in the late teens, so not a huge distance between the three big parties going into this election.

"The hope in Sinn Fein for the best part of a decade now, the realistic hope, was that they could look forward to being in power in Northern Ireland and being in power [in the Republic] at the same time, and you would have Sinn Fein ministers in both jurisdictions meeting on a regular basis as a sort of nascent all Ireland government.

"I think it's not impossible for Sinn Fein to be in government in the South after this election.

"But, the path to government looks an awful lot more difficult than it did a year ago, and I think that will have implications for the party."

Polling takes place on Friday, November 29th.

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