What to look out for ahead of General Election results 2024 in Northern Ireland

All has been said and done for the 2024 General Election campaign - now all that is left is to count the votes in what count be a seismic poll.

While the UK picture looks to see a change in government for the first time in 14 years, politics in Northern Ireland could also see a change.

Here, UTV’s Political Editor Tracey Magee looks at the key constituency battlegrounds that will be the focus as counting continues through the night.

East Belfast

2019 result

Gavin Robinson (DUP) 20,874 (49.2%, +6.6%)Naomi Long (Alliance) 19,055 (44.9%, +8.9%)Carl McClean (UUP) 2,516 (5.9%, +2.6%)

Candidates 2024

Gavin Robinson – DUPNaomi Long - AllianceSéamas de Faoite - SDLPJohn Ross - TUVBrian Smyth - Green PartyRyan Warren - UUP

The most watched battle in this election and the hardest to predict. Gavin Robinson and Naomi Long are slugging it out for the fourth time. But this time the stakes are higher; with the DUP man now party leader, a loss will mean questions will be asked about how he will be able to continue at the helm.

The 2019 contest was dominated by the fallout from Brexit. Then it was a much slimmed down field as pro-Remain parties such as Sinn Fein, the SDLP and Greens did not stand, giving the pro-Remain Alliance leader a clear run at the seat.

The only other candidate in the race was Ulster Unionist Carl McClean who carded 2,516 votes. In the end the DUP man saw off the Alliance challenge (for the third time), but with a mere 1,819 majority.

This time there are more candidates in the field – the Alliance leader could lose votes to the SDLP and Greens who are back in the fray; Sinn Fein has opted not to stand. The Ulster Unionists are also standing, but the wild card is the TUV candidate John Ross.

In 2019 Westminster the TUV did stand not any candidates, this time the party are standing and their position is deeply critical of the their unionist colleagues for what the party says is their betrayal over the Irish Sea border. It’s hard to know how much their presence on the ballot paper will damage the DUP.

In the 2022 Assembly election the TUV garnered over 3,000 votes - a repeat performance in this election could be decisive. Another factor in this constituency are the boundary changes.

Some of the East Belfast constituency has moved to North Down which may disadvantage the DUP. Parts of south Belfast has been added – that could mean an influx of SDLP voters who may be inclined to plump for Alliance. Tactical voting will be key in this battleground, as will turnout, and the result may come down to just a few hundred votes

North Down

2019 result

Stephen Farry (Alliance) 18,358 (45.2%, +35.9%)Alex Easton (DUP) 15,390 (37.9%, -0.3%)Alan Chambers (UUP) 4,936 (12.1%, +12.1%)Matthew Robinson (Cons) 1,959 (4.8%, +2.4%)

Candidates 2024

Tim Collins - UUPChris Carter - IndependentAlex Easton - IndependentStephen Farry - AllianceBarry McKee - Green PartyDéirdre Vaughan - SDLP

Another potential wild card battleground. The deputy leader Stephen Farry was the big Alliance success last time out. He took the seat vacated by independent unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon despite a challenge from DUP MLA Alex Easton.

This time its three way fight between Mr Farry, Alex Easton, who’s now standing as an independent unionist, and new contender, former army colonel Tim Collins, who’s the Ulster Unionist candidate. It could be that the two unionist candidates split the vote which will allow the Alliance man to take the seat especially as he should have the advantage as the incumbent.

But another theory is that the Ulster Unionist newcomer may prove attractive to moderate unionists - especially in North Down which has a history of choosing independent thinking unionists, giving Alex Easton the edge over his two rivals.

The presence of other parties such as the Greens and the SDLP this time may eat into the Alliance man’s 3,000-strong majority. In theory, the decision by the DUP and TUV not to stand should help Alex Easton, but the performance of the Ulster Unionist Tim Collins will be key to who wins.

South Antrim

2019 result

Paul Girvan (DUP) 15,149 (35.3%, -3.0%)Danny Kinahan (UUP) 12,460 (29.0%, -1.8%)John Blair (Alliance) 8,190 (19.1%, +11.6%)Declan Kearney (Sinn Féin) 4,887 (11.4%, -6.7%)Roisin Lynch (SDLP) 2,288 (5.3%, -0.1%)

Candidates 2024

John Blair - AlliancePaul Girvan - DUPDeclan Kearney - Sinn FéinMel Lucas - TUVRoisin Lynch - SDLPSiobhan McErlean - AontúRobin Swann - UUP

There’s a real possibility that this constituency will change hands from the DUP to UUP – again! This constituency has flip flopped between the two main unionist parties for years.

The DUP’s Paul Girvan is defending his 2,689 majority against a challenge from the Ulster Unionist MLA Robin Swann. The popular former health minister announced he was moving from his North Antrim seat to take on the DUP in the neighbouring constituency of South Antrim.

A crucial factor will be the performance of the TUV candidate Mel Lucas. The party did not stand in 2019, but it did get 4,371 in the 2022 Assembly election. The Alliance candidate John Blair did well last time out increasing his vote by over 11%, but his votes came mostly from Sinn Fein.

This is the only unionist on unionist battle in this election and it will be interesting to see if non-unionist voters row in behind the high profile UUP man to unseat the DUP incumbent who has held the seat since 2015.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

2019 result

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,986 (43.3%, -3.9%)Tom Elliott (UUP) 21,929 (43.2%, -2.3%)Adam Gannon (SDLP) 3,446 (6.8%, +2.0%)Matthew Beaumont (Alliance) 2,650 (5.2%, +3.6%)Caroline Wheeler (Ind) 751 (1.5%, +1.5%)

Candidates 2024

Pat Cullen - Sinn FéinEddie Roofe - AllianceDiana Armstrong - UUPPaul Blake - SDLPGerry Cullen - Cross-Community Labour AlternativeCarl Duffy - Aontú

Undoubtedly a big moment in a rather lacklustre election campaign was when Sinn Féin announced the high profile health union boss Pat Cullen was standing for the party in this knife edge constituency.

Previously the well-known sitting MP Michelle Gildernew had announced she was stepping aside to stand for the party in Midlands-North West in the Republic’s elections to the European Parliament. It left the candidacy open, but the party pulled off a surprise move by announcing Mrs Cullen, who is better known as the RCN General Secretary and chief executive, was to stand in her place.

Her main challenger is Ulster Unionist Diana Armstrong - a councillor in the Fermanagh and Omagh Council, she is the daughter of former Ulster Unionist leader Harry West. Fermanagh and South Tyrone is historically one of the most marginal seats, not only in NI, but in the UK.

In 2019 Mrs Gildernew secured her seat with a majority of just 57 votes ahead of her nearest challenger the Ulster Unionist Tom Elliott. This time the other unionist parties had favoured a unionist unity candidate, but then decided not to stand when the Ulster Unionist Party confirmed it was standing a candidate. The boundary changes appear to favour nationalists this time, but the outcome will still be tight.

Foyle

2019 result

Colum Eastwood (SDLP) 26,881 (57.%, +17.7%)Elisha McCallion (Sinn Féin) 9,771 (20.7%, -19.%)Gary Middleton (DUP) 4,773 (10.1%, -6.0%)Anne McCloskey (Aontú) 2,032 (4.3%, +4.3%)Shaun Harkin (PBP) 1,332 (2.8%, -0.2%)Rachael Ferguson (Alliance) 1,267 (2.7%, +0.8%)Darren Guy (UUP) 1,088 (2.3%, +2.3%)

Candidates 2024

John Boyle - AontúSandra Duffy - Sinn FéinGary Middleton - DUPColum Eastwood - SDLPRachael Ferguson - AllianceSean Harkin - PBPAnne McCloskey - IndependentJanice Montgomery - UUP

Last time the SDLP secured a massive result here. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood trounced the Sinn Fein incumbent Elisha McCallion. The Sinn Fein vote collapsed in 2019 with the party’s vote halving in comparison to its victory two years earlier.

Since then, Sinn Fein have overhauled their local party, retiring Elisha McCallion, changing their MLA team and standing only three of its seven councillors elected in 2019 in 2023 local government election. The SDLP has also had some controversy – two of its councillors quit the party to become independents after Lilian Seenoi-Barr was selected to be the party’s Mayor. In 2019 the SDLP benefitted from a perfect storm over Brexit and voters dissatisfaction at stalemate at Stormont. Sinn Féin is standing former Derry City Mayor Sandra Duffy who has been a Sinn Fein councillor since 2014.

Foyle may be the number one target for the Sinn Fein, but overturning a 17 thousand majority may be too much of a challenge this time. The expectation is that Colum Eastwood will retain the seat with a reduced majority.

Lagan Valley

2019 result

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 19,586 (43.1%, -16.4%)Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance) 13,087 (28.8%, +17.7%)Robbie Butler (UUP) 8,606 (19.0%, +2.2%)Ally Haydock (SDLP) 1,758 (3.9%, -3.7%)Gary McCleave (Sinn Féin) 1,098 (2.4%, -1.1%)Gary Hynds (Cons) 955 (2.1%, +1.1%)Alan Love (UKIP) 315 (0.7%, +0.7%)

Candidates 2024

Sorcha Eastwood - AllianceJonathan Buckley - DUPRobbie Butler - UUPPatricia Denvir - Green PartySi Lee - SDLPLorna Smyth - TUV

One thing is certain, there will be a new MP in Lagan Valley when voters wake up tomorrow morning. That’s because the outgoing MP, former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, is not standing again after he was arrested and charged with historical sex offences, which he denies.

The DUP’s new candidate is current Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley. He inherits a majority of nearly 6,500, but the big unknown is how unionist voters will react to the shock departure of their former MP who’s held the seat since 1997.

The DUP man’s main challenge will come Alliance candidate Sorcha Eastwood who cut Sir Jeffrey’s majority by over 7,000 votes last time out. Another factor will be how the Ulster Unionist candidate Robbie Butler performs.

In 2019 the Ulster Unionist Deputy leader pulled in over 8,500 votes and the party pushed their vote up to nearly 10,000 in the 2022 Assembly election. The TUV is standing in Lagan Valley.

The party didn’t stand in the 2019 Westminster election, but it did manage to get nearly 3,500 in the Assembly election. What impact will they have in this election? Sinn Féin aren’t standing here. Will their 2,700 votes from the 2022 Assembly election row in behind Sorcha Eastwood?

South Belfast and Mid Down

2019 result

Claire Hanna (SDLP) 27,079 (57.2%, +31.3%)Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) 11,678 (24.7%, -5.8%)Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 6,786 (14.3%, -3.9%)Michael Henderson (UUP) 1,259 (2.7%, -0.8%)Chris McHugh (Aontú) 550 (1.2%, +1.2%)

Candidates 2024

Tracy Kelly - DUPKate Nicholl - AllianceMichael Henderson - UUPClaire Hanna - SDLPDan Boucher - TUVÁine Groogan - Green Party

The boundary changes in this constituency are so big that it has been renamed to Belfast South and Mid Down. Around 10% of its electorate has been lost to East Belfast, but it has gained parts of the former Strangford and Lagan Valley constituencies.

The changes will no doubt dent the SDLP vote but are unlikely to change the outcome. In 2019 Claire Hanna won a 15,401 majority over the sitting MP the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly. The Alliance candidate is former Belfast Mayor Kate Nicholl. The party has increased its vote in the local government and Assembly.

The DUP has returned to its grassroots by standing Belfast councillor Tracey Bell. However the fact that Sinn Fein has decided not to stand here has probably guaranteed Claire Hanna will retain her seat, however a more crowded field may reduce her majority.

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