Tracey Magee: Northern Ireland low on Tory conference agenda more important speech in two weeks

There’s really only one topic of conversation at the Conservative Party conference … and it’s certainly not the Windsor Framework. Delegates attending the annual get together in Manchester are thinking about next year’s election and when it will be. The government has been in the doldrums in the polls for some time. In fact some show the Conservative Party is trailing behind Labour by up to 20 points. Many MPs are starting to worry about their seats.

From the moment the conference began on Sunday it was clear this week was going to be about getting the election campaign underway. Westminster parties tend not to play politics when it comes to Northern Ireland, but this year Chris Heaton-Harris in his speech to conference took a pot shot at the Labour leader for not committing to take a side on a border poll. “And let’s not forget, it wasn’t too long ago that Sir Keir Starmer loyally served under a Labour Leader who wanted to break up our precious Union,” he told delegates. “Under Starmer Labour have flipped from saying they’d campaign for the Union in a border poll to bravely failing to pick a side.” In this sort of atmosphere there’s not much enthusiasm for rehashing a debate conservatives believe has already been sorted. Holding on in government is more important to Tory delegates than discussing the intricacies of how to restore government in Northern Ireland Speaking to delegates at conference, it’s pretty clear they have very little knowledge of, or interest in, the Windsor Framework. Most delegates we spoke to freely admitted they know nothing about it. One NI Conservative told me the ignorance of Northern Ireland’s political landscape has shocked him, with one MP asking him how the businesses will handle using the euro. But it would be wrong to suggest the government has given up on sorting out unionist concerns over the Framework. Work is underway behind the scenes to try to pave the way back to government for the DUP.

But the reality is there’s not much room to maneuver with the Prime Minister reiterating last week that the Windsor Framework is set. “The Framework is the Framework,” Rishi Sunak told me last week.

He promised to work to make its operation more “flexible” but he insisted the “fundamentals of it are what they are.” For his part, the Secretary of State is trying to convince unionism, when it comes to the Framework’s operation, there’s nothing to see here. On Sunday - the day the green and red lanes became operational at Northern Ireland’s ports - Mr Heaton-Harris appealed to the public to reserve judgment on the Windsor Framework.

“I think the best way to examine it is by looking at the reality of what is going on as lorries come off the boats and come through the different ports. We know there are absolutely checks of lorries going into the red lane, but just look at what is the friction in the green lane,” he said.

"I know people don't trust politicians don't trust them, don't trust me have a look at exactly what's going on."

It’s an interesting take, but I’m not sure how well it will work.

The reality is that while checks in the green lanes may have been minimised, they have not been eliminated. For that reason, the DUP say the UK government has made a trade border in the Irish Sea a reality. The last Secretary of State who tried to spin his way out the Brexit conundrum was Brandon Lewis who tried to tell everyone the NI Protocol had not created a trade border in the Irish Sea. As we all know, that didn’t end well. It’s against this backdrop that the DUP will hold a meeting of its party executive this week in Lurgan. Party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson told reporters Thursday night’s meeting has been called to deal with “routine party business,” adding “discussions with the government are ongoing.” But Sir Jeffrey Donaldson did add: “Every negotiation has a beginning and an end. We will no doubt reach a moment where both sides will recognise that we have taken this as far as we can. We’re not there yet.” Routine or not, delegates will use the meeting as an opportunity to question their leader on his discussions with government. Tomorrow the Conservative conference will finish with a speech from the leader. Will Rishi Sunak mention Northern Ireland? The more important speech to gauge Northern Ireland’s political future will probably come in two weeks when the DUP leader will address his party at its annual conference in Belfast.

At that point if there is no indication from Sir Jeffrey that an agreement is in the offing, it’s hard to see how a deal can be done in what is undoubtedly a closing window of opportunity.

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