Bins or big picture? The dilemma facing Northern Ireland voters

Katie Andrews and Tracey Magee discuss the forthcoming council elections.

Northern Ireland heads to the polls on Thursday to elect councillors across 11 council areas.

A total of 462 seats are up for grabs.

And while most local council elections usually focus on local issues such as bin collections, this one is being fought against the backdrop of the ongoing Stormont impasse.

The Executive hasn’t functioned since February 2022 when the DUP withdrew their First Minister Paul Givan in protest at the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Following a fresh election of MLAs last May, the DUP has refused to nominate a speaker, meaning Stormont is still yet to be reformed.

“The question will be will people go out and make comment and vote according to what is going on in the bigger picture,” explained UTV Political Editor Tracey Magee.

“Local government elections are hard to predict as it can be about local issues, there is a lot of personality politics in local government elections, independents and people who have been councillors for a very long time and people want to endorse them again.

“But it could be that people will decide they want to make a comment on what is going on in Stormont, either by voting for the likes of Sinn Féin to say ‘we think you’re on the right path and you need to get back into government’ or to say to the DUP ‘we are happy or unhappy with the fact you are boycotting, we will give you the vote, we will not give you the vote’.

“There will be a lot of interpretation on this local government election, not necessarily about local government issues.”

A key focus point will be on where Unionist votes lie. The DUP are looking for further revisions to the Windsor Framework, the TUV are campaigning on a more hard-line Brexit stance of no trade differences between NI and the rest of the UK, while the UUP are open to returning to Stormont and working with the Windsor Framework.

“The DUP have said repeatedly that they will not go back into government for as long as the Windsor Framework is the way it is at the moment and it could be that people will say ‘we’re backing that stance, we’re going to give you an increased mandate so you can go back to the government and get changes to the Framework’,” Tracey added.

“But it could be that voters desert the party and the question then is which way will they go?

“Will they go for the more hard-line TUV party which has said repeatedly that there should be no government as long as the Windsor Framework or Northern Ireland Protocol is in place, or will they go to the Ulster Unionist Party who although they are opposed to the Northern Ireland Protocol say they will take their seats in government?

“It could also be that they decide instead to vote Alliance.”

On the Nationalist side, Sinn Féin are looking to build on the success they had in last year’s Assembly elections which saw them emerge as the largest party.

They currently have the second highest number of councillors in the country, behind the DUP.

“Sinn Féin say they want to become the largest party in local government which would be a stunning achievement for the party,” explained Tracey.

“They hope to capitalise on what was an incredible result in the Assembly election and will say that they are a party on the march.

“They’ll also be making the point to the electorate that they got this result back in May 2022 that would have allowed Michelle O’Neill to become First Minister and she’s been kept out of government because of the DUP’s boycott. The party are saying ‘that’s wrong and if you want to make that protest come out and vote for us’.

“If Sinn Féin become the largest party they will say they are the party on the rise, they’d be the largest party at local government and at the Assembly and next year they hope to become the biggest party in the Dáil.

“If that happened they’d be able to say ‘we are the biggest party across the Ireland’ and that could play into the question of whether or not there should be a border poll.”

It’s also an important election for the SDLP who have seen their vote share continue to slide in recent years.

“For them the question is whether they can maintain their vote or stop the decline,” said Tracey.

“The question will be whether or not Nationalist voters see Sinn Féin as the largest party and so they see less relevance in voting for the SDLP. This could be quite an important election for the SDLP.”