Tracey Magee: How Jayne Brady found herself at heart of political standoff

As Head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service Jayne Brady very deliberately does not take political positions or make political statements and yet she finds herself smack in the middle of a political crisis.

Stormont is – down again, but the timing, in terms of public services, could not be worse.

While politics here is stuck in a mire of arguments between the government and the DUP over the Windsor Framework, the public purse is in an increasingly precarious state.

For months there have been warnings about the poor state of NI’s finances. Privately, civil servants have been warning of impending ‘brutal’ cuts.

Publicly, retired civil servants have been raising the alarm that their former colleagues are being put in the unfair position of having to make political decisions which should be taken by ministers.

Last week a leaked letter penned by Mrs Brady to the Northern Ireland Office warned, in the strongest possible terms, of the ‘unprecedented’ damage to public services that could be caused by the proposed budget allocations.

The following day the budget allocations were announced and the overall verdict is it's bad, but could have been worse.

What has been announced is a ‘flat cash’ budget. In other words, last year Northern Ireland received £14billion in day-to-day spending and it has received roughly the same amount this year.

But with inflation running at over 10%, energy prices soaring, a war in Ukraine and a cost of living crisis, the effect in real terms is a budget squeeze.

The real picture became clearer yesterday with the NI Fiscal Council assessment is that Northern Ireland is £800million in the red and it estimates Stormont departments face cuts of 3.3%.

That doesn’t too bad does it?

But to quote one Stormont insider last week the effect on public services here will be ‘devastating.’

The Department of infrastructure has said the cut to its budget will be closer to 14% and it is actively considering turning off street lights in an effort to pay the bills.

The Treasury has shown a little flexibility with the announcement that a £297m overspend racked up last year will not have to be paid back immediately.

Instead it can be paid back over two years.

That’s the good news, the bad news is that all government money released throughout the year - so-called Barnett consequentials – will be paid straight to Treasury until the bill is paid.

Already the effects are being felt.

Giving evidence at Westminster’s NI Affairs committee, the Finance Permanent Secretary confirmed the settlement reached yesterday by health workers in Great Britain following industrial action will not be paid to Northern Ireland’s workers.

Neil Gibson confirmed it is his ‘current understanding’ that any money will be used to repay the overspend.

“There are no exceptions,” he added.

Throughout the hearing the Head of the Civil Service Mrs Brady repeated that decisions must be made politicians.

Her theme, which she repeated and again, is that the level of cuts are so great and the policy decisions that flow from them so strategic, that only an elected minister can take them.

“As the budget settlement sits,” she told MPs, “ and we analyse what the implications are, it is our understanding having read the guidance that there will be decisions that will not be able to be fulfilled.

"That would require some level of ministerial directions and that’s the legal advice that we have received. There is a gap.” Despite the financial squeeze there is no prospect of an early return to Stormont.

During today’s committee session DUP MP Carla Lockhart pointed out repeatedly that if Stormont returned the budget position would not change.

In a prickly exchange about the absence of ministers with the Conservative chairman of the NI committee Simon Hoare, Mrs Lockhart said:

“The reality is that has been created as the result of your own government in relation to the Protocol and the fact that it was signed up to. It’s very clear we want Stormont, we want devolution to work.

"We want to be back making decisions but lies in the gift of the UK government.”

The stand-off continues.

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