We're in for long haul: Sanctions on Russia for Ukraine invasion will hit home, expert warns

• By Jim O'Hagan and James McNaney

A Russian Queen's academic has warned the effects of the invasion of Ukrainian will ripple across Europe and be felt in Northern Ireland.

"We're here for the long haul," Dr Alex Titov told UTV.

He said he expects western sanctions to be ineffective at crippling the Russian economy.

Dr Titov is a historian at Queen's University Belfast who specialises in Russian foreign policy and contemporary history. He also hails from the country.

He spoke to UTV's Jim O'Hagan and set out Putin's motivations for his actions.

"It's about keeping Ukraine out of the NATO sphere of influence, demilitarising it and installing a Russian-friendly regime," he said.

Dr Titov believes the origins of Thursday's attack date back to the break up of the Soviet Union.

"That's certainly been in Putin's mind," he said.

"There is increasing Russian frustration at the expansion of NATO, particularly into what it sees as its historical strategic land.

"Half of Putin's speech this morning was about NATO. The United States pushing its military influence into Ukraine. That's his rationale for this current invasion, to stop this from happening.

"The more immediate aspects were the revolution which happened in 2014 in Kyiv with the overthrow of the relatively pro-Russian President Yanukovych. That followed by the secession of Crimea and the beginning of the conflict in the east Donbas in which Russia supported the rebels."

Dr Titov does not believe western sanctions will be an effective method of stopping Putin.

"They were expecting those sanctions, they would be preparing for them. Russia's been under sanctions since 2014."

Russia has been preparing for sanctions in a bid to cushion itself from their intended effects.

Those preparations include developing its own payment system, building up huge foreign currency reserves and having an internet capacity separate from international influence. The country has also developed ties with China.

Altogether, Dr Titov believes this will make the sanctions "painful" but that they won't "collapse the Russian economy".

He said: "The sanctions that are really harmful for Russia will also be harmful for the imposing side. In terms of financial stability, energy prices, Russia is an extremely important player.

"If the West were to block Russian exports of oil and gas, prices will skyrocket."

Dr Titov describes Russia's supply of gas to Europe as "simply irreplaceable".

"We are in here for the long haul".