Peak of Covid-19 epidemic ‘first wave’ from 6-20 April

Health Minister Robin Swann says in a “reasonable worst case scenario”, the projected number of Covid-19 deaths in Northern Ireland over of the epidemic would be 3,000.

Data from an expert Northern Ireland modelling study indicates that the peak of the first wave of the epidemic is expected between 6-20 April 2020.

According to the Health Minister, the research indicates the health service would have “a realistic prospect of coping” in the initial period if people adhere to social distancing and self-isolation.

“However, it is important that this is considered in context, and I would emphasise that it provides no grounds whatsoever for dropping our guard,” Mr Swann said.

“On the contrary, the projections underline that the continuation of rigorous social distancing will save many lives and protect our health service from collapse.

“Even then, a reasonable worst case scenario would involve significant loss of life In Northern Ireland.”

However, the Minister has warned that the absence of a vaccine means people will have to prepare for a potential second wave of coronavirus cases later in the year.

The modelling sets out a reasonable worst case scenario based on a number of assumptions – including social distancing measures reducing contact outside the home and workplace by 66%, and 70% of symptomatic cases adhering to isolation.

In those circumstances, the research team’s best judgement is that 180 Covid-19 patients would require ventilation and critical care beds during the first wave of the epidemic.

They judge that the peak number of hospital admissions would be 500 per week and that the death toll over 20 weeks would be 3,000.

The modelling team authors emphasise that the work is not a prediction or forecast, rather a model for planning purposes.

They state: “It is assumed that current restrictions remain in place for the foreseeable future.

“When the current restrictions are relaxed, there will be a second wave.

“Future modelling will focus on the size and shape of this depending on how/when restrictions are relaxed or re-introduced.

“This will remain the case until there is substantial population immunity, either as a result of recovery from infection or successful vaccination.”

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