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Spending Review: 2.6 million families 'will be £1,600 a year worse off' after benefit changes

Up to 2.6 million working families could be an average of £1,600 worse off a year as a result of benefit changes announced in Chancellor George Osborne's Spending Review, according to independent economic experts.

Despite Mr Osborne's decision to scrap proposed cuts to tax credits due to come in next April, the Institute of Fiscal Studies says the introduction of the new Universal Credit, which consolidates a number of existing benefits, will result in the cut in cash for affected households.

The IFS also says Mr Osborne was "lucky" to receive a £27 billion windfall which allowed him to perform his U-turn on tax credits, adding the Chancellor will "need his luck to hold out" if he is to meet his target of a surplus by 2019/20 without raising taxes or imposing further spending reductions.

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Spending Review: Osborne's '£27bn windfall may never arrive'

The Chancellor's anticipated £27 billion windfall that allowed him to balance his Autumn Statement and Spending Review may never arrive, a group of experts have warned.

George Osborne used the proceeds of a surprise improvement in forecast tax receipts and low debt-interest rates to protect police budgets and bankroll a U-turn over tax credit cuts.

But independent economic think tank the Institute of Fiscal Studies, ahead of detailed analysis to be released today, warned that there was only a "50-50" chance of the revenue forecasts remaining as positive for Mr Osborne. Speaking to the BBC, director Paul Johnson said:

The risk for him, and this must be at least a 50-50 risk, is that the next time round, or the time after, or the time after, these tax revenue forecasts will look less rosy.

– Paul Johnson, Institute of Fiscal Studies

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