Coronavirus infection rate highest in North East
By Tom Sheldrick - Political Correspondent
The coronavirus infection rate is currently higher in the North East and Yorkshire than any other part of England, analysis has suggested.
The academic modelling found the 'R' figure in our region is now around 0.8, which means, on average, ten infected people are passing the virus on to eight others.
That means the virus would eventually die out. However, it is relatively close to the tipping point of 1, above which a virus can increase exponentially.
They say their estimates are used by a sub-group of Sage (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), which is the vital scientific body advising the government on the pandemic.
The figures therefore appear to be as 'official' as are available.
Government ministers and leading scientists have spoken about the importance of 'R' - the reproduction rate that measures how many people each infected person will pass the virus onto.
The rate would have been much higher when the virus was spreading during March and April.
The figure for the North East and Yorkshire is double that of London, where it's thought the virus reached a high peak around a month ago, and has since subsided significantly.
The analysis adds evidence to suggestions that Covid-19 took hold later in the North East, and has persisted at a relatively high level.
A higher proportion of people have tested positive for the virus in the North East than any other part of the country.
The death rate in our region has not been as high as London, the North West and West Midlands.
Last week, Sunderland Central MP Julie Elliott told me: "We are several weeks behind London in terms of our peak" and "the last thing we want is the government to lift restrictions too early and cause unnecessary deaths".
Mayors in the North West of England, where the 'R' rate is thought to be around 0.73, have said they fear the government's relaxation of the 'Stay at Home' message, with lockdown restrictions starting to be lifted this week, may have come to soon for the region and could expose residents to a greater risk of infection.
The Labour mayor for the North of Tyne, Jamie Driscoll, added his voice to those calling for the government to share regional and local 'R' numbers.
He said doing so "would help us work with our businesses and public services to keep people safe."
In response to my question at the Downing Street press conference last week, the Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said: "Our strong preference is that the whole country moves as one" in lifting lockdown restrictions.
The initial changes made this week, which have included encouraging more people to go back to work and allowing unlimited outdoor exercise, were applied across England as a whole.
However, the government's coronavirus 'recovery strategy' published on Monday included: "In England, the government may adjust restrictions in some regions before others."
These 'R' rate figures suggest that the North East is likely to be among the last regions to have further lockdown measures eased, if that approach is followed.
The government document explains how a new Joint Biosecurity Centre "will provide real time analysis and assessment of infection outbreaks at a community level, to enable rapid intervention before outbreaks grow."
This could mean that individual schools or workplaces are closed if there is a spike in cases.
It's likely to work alongside the 'test, track and trace' programme that is currently being developed, so that anyone who an infected person has come into contact with can be informed and isolated, to try to prevent the virus spreading.