North East has highest rate of coronavirus cases

By Tom Sheldrick and Tom Barton

During Tuesday's Downing Street press conference, a reporter from the Northern Echo newspaper asked one of the questions, about whether lockdown restrictions could be lifted in some regions before others.

The Health Secretary Matt Hancock, thought to be a Newcastle United fan, took the opportunity to praise the North East in his response.

These comments prompted headlines in several newspapers in the region.

But, according to our analysis, what he said about the North East having a relatively low number of coronavirus cases is, unfortunately, an incorrect interpretation of the available statistics.

Here's why...

Public Health England figures, up until Monday 27 April, show 7,174 people in the North East had tested positive for coronavirus.

That is quite a small number compared to other regions, but only because we have quite a small population.

When you take account of that, we have had 270 cases per 100,000 people here, a rate of infection that is higher than any other part of the country.

So people here are more likely to have had coronavirus.

This graph shows the infection rate in the North East was initially low, but has increased steeply during April. Credit: Public Health England figures, analysed by ITV Tyne Tees

Meanwhile, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, up until Friday 17 April, show there had been 913 deaths in the North East involving coronavirus.

That is 34 deaths per 100,000 people, a death rate lower than London, the North West and West Midlands, but higher than all other parts of England and Wales and above the national average.

The death rate here could be expected to have risen significantly in the time since 17 April, in line with the increase in cases.

It's believed that levels of poverty and pre-existing health conditions are linked to how severely different places have been affected by the virus.

Variation in figures for the number of cases could also be related to testing rates.

The Health Secretary said yesterday that the government was "looking at" whether lockdown measures could be eased at different rates, but our analysis suggests that the North East would not be among the first places where that would be likely to happen.

The Department of Health has provided a response to our findings.