Local Elections 2023: Can Labour and the Lib Dems make big gains in the Tory heartland of the south?

This is Rishi Sunak’s first big electoral test as Tory leader. It’s a crucial night too for Sir Keir Starmer as he tries to portray Labour as an alternative government. And all eyes will be on the Meridian region.

If 2019 was the Red Wall election - the Tories making so many gains in traditionally Labour areas in the north and the midlands - the next election will probably be all about the Blue Wall.

Can Labour - and the Lib Dems - make big gains in the Tory heartland of the south?

Tony Blair won in 1997 partly because Labour did just that. Sir Keir can’t become PM unless he does the same.

And if Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems are to stage a revival - it will start in the south. Their national opinion poll rating is perhaps misleading because they concentrate most of their efforts on key target seats - and there are plenty of them in our region.

So there’s lots for the three main parties to look out for as the results start coming in. And for the Greens too, hoping to strengthen their position in Brighton and Hove, and pick up other seats elsewhere.

And don’t forget independent candidates. There are more than ever these days and they can have a real influence on the results.

Finally don’t read too much into these elections. They’re not a prediction of what would happen in a general election. Turnout is lower in the locals, and quite a few people vote differently when they’re choosing a government.

But if we compare the parties’ performances with the last time most of these seats were fought - 2019 - we should get a sense of the trend: by tomorrow afternoon, we should know which way the political wind is blowing.

And the clock is ticking. The general election could be as early as next May - in exactly 12 months’ time.