Boris Johnson will survive vote and dig his heels in to stay at Number 10, says political expert

Boris Johnson will dig his heels in and remain in Downing Street even if more MPs than expected vote against him tonight, says a political expert.

The idea that a sense of duty might make him proffer his resignation is unrealistic, adds Dr Sam Power, a lecturer in politics at the University of Sussex.

Talking to ITV News Meridian, Dr Power said: "All the evidence we have from Boris Johnson over the past six months, and longer, is that unless he is almost forcibly removed from Downing Street or told that 'these are the rules and you have to go' he will dig in and he will hold on.

"We’ve seen that throughout the Partygate affair, so I would be very surprised, despite, I would expect, a higher level of votes against him than many expect, if that would be enough for him to go.

"The sense that he will feel a sense of duty to go if there is a high number is unrealistic."

Former Prime Minister Theresa May stayed on after surviving a no confidence vote but was 'mortally wounded' by the experience, he said.

"We might expect Boris to be mortally wounded by this vote of no confidence.

"But in a sense he has been mortally wounded since December last year when the Partygate revelations came out, and that is because there is one vote that matters and that’s the vote of the electorate and we are seeing that the public are still angry about this and Boris Johnson is becoming a drag on support and that is a real problem."

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, announced this morning that at least 15% of Conservative MPs had written to him demanding a vote.

More than the threshold of 54 MPs are understood to have submitted no confidence letters but it would require 180 of them to vote against the prime minister in order to oust him.

Politics lecturer Dr Sam Power

Dr Power believes the Prime Minister will survive the vote but added: "It is another in a long line of almost terminal effects on his leadership.

"But the die was cast in December of last year and January this year. As soon as the Partygate revelations broke we saw polling which suggested the public were very angry. The vote just goes further to damage his appeal to the electorate."

He added that booing in London on Friday will have been worrying to many conservatives.

"It was quite shocking. You have a certain crowd that you might expect to boo Boris Johnson but that is not the kind of people that turn up to a Jubilee celebration to watch people entering St Paul's Cathedral.

"That was a visceral demonstration of Boris Johnson‘s failing appeal amongst the British public at large, which also suggests that whatever the outcome of this vote of no confidence, if Boris Johnson holds on, the die is cast here.

"The public are angry and he is becoming a drag of Conservative electoral fortunes."

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