'Don't travel by train' message may be necessary after axing of HS2 says government watchdog

Rail users could be told not to travel after HS2 was axed

The public may need to be 'incentivised' not to travel by train following the axing of the northern leg of HS2, according to a government watchdog.

The National Audit Office (NAO) says that 'capacity issues' will mean that the current situation where travellers north of Birmingham will use the West Coast Mainline (WCML) may save time but won't make for easier journeys.

In October 2023 then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the HS2 high speed line would not be extended to Manchester.

According to the NAO this could mean that rail users will face HS2 trains with fewer seats unless stations and infrastructure are upgraded to accommodate longer trains.

The Northern leg of HS2 was scrapped.

The Office says that given that HS2 Ltd, the government-owned company behind the project, estimates there will be a 17% reduction in capacity between the two cities, and that the Department for Transport believes the WCML will reach capacity by the mid-2030's, the Department may need to 'manage demand'.

This could include "incentivising people to travel at different times or to not travel by rail".

It went on: "This may constrain economic growth in the region over the long term and increase environmental costs".

Another possibility could be improving or adding infrastructure but "this may be expensive and disruptive", according to the watchdog.

The report also found it could cost HS2 Ltd up to £100 million and take up to three years to scale back its plans following Mr Sunak’s decision.

The process involves decommissioning and closing down construction sites, and reinstating land to its original state.

A spokesman for HS2 Ltd said: "This is a project of unprecedented scale and complexity, and the cancellation of Phase 2 has increased our cost challenges.

"We are now making sweeping reforms to control costs better and deliver the next stage of the programme - passing peak construction between London and the West Midlands, and starting the transition to a working railway."

The government has been quick to point its finger at its predecessors.

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh says the Conservatives mismanaged HS2

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh said: "It’s long been clear that the Conservatives recklessly mismanaged HS2 and allowed the costs to spiral entirely out of control - but this report lays bare the scale of their mistakes.

"We are reviewing this report’s findings, alongside the position we have inherited on HS2 and wider transport infrastructure, and will set out next steps in due course.

"Transport is an essential part of our mission to rebuild Britain – and we’re committed to delivering infrastructure that works for the whole country."

The DfT have not commented, but Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham says he has been vindicated by the report.

Metro Mayors Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham urged Rishi Sunak not to cut HS2 further.

In a statement he says: "The report from the National Audit Office (NAO) shines a spotlight on the consequences of cancelling the northern leg of HS2 and backs up what we have been saying.

"By the Department for Transport’s assessment, the West Coast Main Line will be at capacity by the mid-2030s. Not doing anything to address this would be a brake on growth.

"As Mayor of Greater Manchester, I will never accept a message to the public of “don’t travel to Greater Manchester by rail".

"Anyone who currently travels on the West Coast Main Line on a regular basis knows how chaotic it can be. It cannot take all those additional HS2 trains in its current state.

"As the NAO points out, they would have to be shorter trains, so there would be fewer seats, and they would go slower.

"The idea that we are going to make rail services worse by the middle of the century is a complete non-starter – a different plan is needed. This is an urgent problem that needs a coherent solution.

"No-one is talking about going back to HS2, but there has to be additional capacity between the West Midlands and Greater Manchester.

"This could be done through expanding and upgrading the West Coast Main Line, although the NAO warns that this would be very disruptive. I see a new, lower-cost, dedicated line as the only real solution.

"It would therefore be a mistake for the government to have a fire sale of the land it has bought to build HS2. Around £600m has already been spent, there is no way the government would recover that value. The best thing is to use that land to pave the way for the new line."