Professor Jon Tonge who predicted Boris Johnson confidence vote says PM is 'political Houdini'

"If he can ride this out then he really will be the biggest political Houdini of all time": Professor Jon Tonge on the difficult months ahead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

A professor who accurately predicted a confidence vote in the Prime Minister has said Boris Johnson could be the "biggest political Houdini of all time".

Professor Jon Tonge, who teaches British Politics at the University of Liverpool, correctly stated 59% of Tory MPs would back Johnson, he also said that 41% would rebel.

His almost perfect prediction proved to be only one out because one more MP than expected took part in the vote.

The confidence vote was triggered by dozens of Tory backbenchers furious about his handling of the scandal which eventually saw him fined by police.

Johnson has said the narrow win allows the government to "draw a line under the issues that opponents want to talk about".

"If he can ride this out then he really will be the biggest political Houdini of all time", said Tonge, who believes his prediction was more 'good luck' than political science.

"He is under pressure like no other Prime Minister probably in British political history," he added.

Speaking about the vote on Monday evening, Tonge said: "You could see during the day that the amount of rebellion against him was going to be pretty high.

"You knew it would be closer than comfortable for Boris Johnson."

Tonge was not the only predictor of the evening. In Westminster, as the Tory minister Greg Hands pointed out, the Parliament Square bus stop called it just right.

Professor Tonge went on to say the North West will be "absolutely crucial" to Boris Johnson remaining at the helm of the Conservative Party.

"It will be a key battle ground at the next election", he explains. "Some of the most loyal MPs that support the Prime minister come from the North West.

"Almost a third of them were elected for the first time at the last general election so they feel like they owe some loyalty to Boris Johnson.

"That's why the Prime Minister needs those Conservative MPs on side. Remember, Boris Johnson has already suffered a defection from his party in Bury South."

Professor Tonge believes Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is also the MP for Wyre and Preston North, is a "dark horse candidate" to succeed Johnson if he falls.

"He is currently 20/1 with the bookmakers. He certainly has the statue to become the next Conservative leader.

"But no cabinet minister at the moment wants to be seen as disloyal to Boris Johnson because ultimately Conservative party members will decide who is the next leader."

After the confidence vote, the PM told reporters in Downing Street: “I think it’s an extremely good, positive, conclusive, decisive result which enables us to move on, to unite and to focus on delivery and that is exactly what we are going to do.”

He thanked his Cabinet on Tuesday morning for helping to secure his victory.

"It was a very important day because we are able now to draw a line under the issues that our opponents want to talk about and we are able to get on talking about the issues, what the issues that I think the people want... and what we are doing to help them and to take the country forward.

"That is what we are going to do. We are going to focus exclusively on that."

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