General Election 2019: the North West seats the leaders want for Christmas
Having spent the past few months watching MPs walk a seemingly endless Brexit treadmill, I admit I’m excited about the prospect of a General Election before Christmas. The road race has finally begun, with a definite, non-negotiable finish line when we all go to the ballot box on 12th December. So where in the North West does each of the parties have on their wish list?
Jeremy Corbyn’s travels begin today with a trip to Crewe, an obvious starting point as the most marginal seat in the North West. It was here in 2017 that former teacher Laura Smith had her ‘David and Goliath’ moment, turning the election into a debate about school funding to snatch the seat from the Conservative incumbent by a minuscule margin of just 48 votes. It’s a formula the Labour leader will take with him this week to target seats in Darwen andMacclesfield (where the party hasn’t won in living memory). His hope? That his message against austerity cuts through louder and clearer than it did last time - because, he told me in September, ‘it’s got worse’.
But the Conservatives want to win Crewe back. It’s prime Leave-voting territory and on paper the archetypal place where they ought to be able to achieve success. They also want to gain Barrow and Furness, Blackpool South and Bolton North East - places that haven’t been Conservative since the 1990s, but voted by a substantial margin to leave the EU. But was a vote for Brexit really a vote for Boris Johnson? Or was it at least in part a cry for attention, which these towns are finally getting now they’re crucial to an election win? The Conservatives see Brexit as a way to cut through in parts of the North West that they haven’t held for decades - but overcoming deep-rooted preconceptions will be a challenge.
And the Brexit Party could prove something of a spanner in the works. The last time a party led by Nigel Farage stood candidates all across the North West was 2015, when research suggests the bulk of UKIP’s support came from the Conservatives. That’s led many to suggest it is Boris Johnson who will suffer if the Brexit Party is to gain. But it may not be that straight-forward. 2015 looks like a completely different era. Our relationship with the EU is now front and centre of our politics. In 2014, UKIP came second in the EU elections to Labour. This year the Brexit Party won. EU membership is no longer an issue confined to the right-wing of the Conservative Party, but one that is brought up by voters unprompted. Brexit has come to be a proxy for the sense of disconnect between ‘the people’ and ‘politicians’ - and Nigel Farage has been in the game long enough to know that could be an effective mantra.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are closing in from the other side, as the only major party unequivocally and unashamedly committed to overturning the EU referendum decision. It’s a policy gives the Lib Dems hope in the Stockport suburbs of Hazel Grove and Cheadle, where a Conservative MP currently represents voters who wanted to Remain. But in the North West the Remain vote is at its strongest where Labour is also at its strongest - making many parts of the region difficult to reach for Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson. The party is hoping to make a dent in the 30,000 Labour majority in Manchester Withington, but to overturn the result would be a phenomenal fight-back.
And finally don’t forget Birkenhead and Bury South, where candidates with years of Parliamentary experience are trying something new. Frank Field and Ivan Lewis are standing as independents, hoping their voters are ready to look past party politics and vote for them as individuals instead. The odds are stacked against them, but this has been described as the most unpredictable election in living memory. As we get started today, many of the issues look strikingly similar to 2017. But perceptions of politics have undoubtedly changed, and the reaction among North West voters could be very different.
THE NORTH WEST WISH LIST
The campaign has only just begun and this is far from exhaustive. But if you live in any of these areas, this election is unlikely to pass you by.
Conservatives:
Crewe & Nantwich
Barrow & Furness
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Labour:
Pendle
Morecambe & Lunesdale
Altrincham & Sale West
Rossendale & Darwen
Liberal Democrats
Cheadle
Hazel Grove
Southport
Altrincham & Sale West