UKIP look to pile pressure on Jeremy Corbyn in Oldham by-election

Credit: PA

Ordinarily this contest, in what is historically the safest of Labour seats, would be a foregone conclusion.

These though, as we know, are far from ordinary times.

The Oldham West and Royton by-election comes 24 hours after 66 Labour MPs and almost half of Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet voted against their own leader in calling for airstrikes on so-called Islamic State targets in Syria.

Here in Oldham it is UKIP that believes it is best-placed to take advantage of a disunited Labour party.

A year ago in Heywood and Middelton, just a few miles down the road from here, the party came within 617 votes of a shock, by-election victory.

UKIP Campaigners here believe a by-election in Clacton that took place on the same day was an unwelcome distraction that split their resources and allowed Labour to cling on to that seat.

They have no such dilemma this time. Nigel Farage has been here two or three times a week since the campaign began.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage (left) and his party's candidate John Bickley visiting the Tommyfield Market Credit: PA

His party has thrown the kitchen-sink at this seat with a campaign based almost solely on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership which has attempted to paint him as an anti-British, anti-military republican out-of-touch with traditional working class Labour voters.

Labour though has fought this seat hard. Some in the party now accept they were too lax in Heywood and Middleton 12 months ago and are not making the same mistake again.

Their campaign has focused not on its leader but its candidate, Jim McMahon. As Oldham Council leader, he lives in the town, his two children go to school here and he is a well-known, well-respected figure.

Jim McMahon, Labour candidate for Oldham West and Royton meets local people in Royton during voting in today's by-election. Credit: PA

There have been some suggestions that where UKIP have mentioned Jeremy Corbyn a lot, Labour have consciously mentioned him very little (the Labour leader has been here only once to launch the campaign) and instead ran a local campaign on local issues. However well UKIP do, a majority of 14,738 is a big ask.

This of course is Tim Farron's first electoral test since becoming Liberal Democrat leader. His party lost its deposit here in May, a senior Lib Dem figure in the North West told me they are quietly confident of between 10 and 12% of the vote. The bookmakers disagree.

The Prime Minister David Cameron certainly won't lose much sleep over the result here. The Conservatives' campaign has focused on growing the local economy, but the party is tipped to lose votes to UKIP, just as they did in Heywood and Middleton last year and in Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election in early 2014.

The bookies have this as a two-horse race between Labour and UKIP. Anything other than a comfortable Labour victory and the questions already being asked of Jeremy Corbyn, will no doubt increase in number.