'It's happening already': Scientist blames climate change for extreme weather in Channel Islands

  • Find out how Climate Change is impacting the weather in the Channel Islands

Extreme weather events in the Channel Islands will happen more frequently because of climate change, according to a UK scientist.

Mike Kendon is the lead author for the UK Met Office's report into the state of Britain's climate.

He says: "Our observations are telling us that our climate is changing right now.

"When we think about climate change, it's not just something that's going to happen later this century, it's happening already."

The report explains that 2023 was the second hottest year since records began in 1884, behind only 2022.

The number of "hot" days, designated as 28 degrees Celsius or above, and "extremely wet" days are both increasing.

Mr Kendon says that the Channel Islands' geography, combined with climate change, makes them increasingly susceptible to extreme weather events in the future.

He adds: "The Channel Islands are very close to continental Europe, to France, so things like severe heatwaves experienced in the near continent might have quite a significant influence somewhere like the Channel Islands too."

Homes in the Channel Islands suffered significant damage from November 2023's high winds, rain and a tornado. Credit: ITV Channel

Researchers looking at long-term weather records in the UK have found no evidence that the islands are experiencing a greater number of storms as a result of climate change.

However, studies do show that as the climate continues to warm, the Bailiwicks are likely to experience more rainfall when storms do happen.

Storm Ciarán brought hailstones the size of ice lollies and a tornado to the Channel Islands in November 2023, leaving residents displaced and some homes badly damaged.

A few months prior in Jersey, flash flooding hit the Grands Vaux area and 22 homes were left uninhabitable due to the heavy rainfall.

Paul Aked, Head of Meteorology at Jersey Met, says: "The jury is out on whether we’re going to see these events happening more often.

"But what we are saying, and this goes back to the atmosphere warming and holding more moisture, is that when we do get extreme events, the science is consistently saying we will see potentially more extreme conditions."

Guernsey had its warmest September on record in 2023. Credit: Guernsey Met

Weather in the Channel Islands followed similar trends to the UK in 2023.

The Bailiwicks had their hottest September ever, while the Howard Davis Weather Station reported 2023 as Jersey's wettest ever year.

Meanwhile, June 2024 marked the 30th month in a row where the sea temperature in the Channel Islands had been above the long-term average.

Jersey had its warmest autumn on record in 2023. Credit: Jersey Met

One marine researcher thinks this temperature increase could be behind some of the wildlife changes he has noticed.

Chris Isaacs, a marine expert from the Société Jersiaise, explains: "We've seen an expansion in the range of southern species, like some sea slugs, which never used to be present in the island and we're now finding them in quite high numbers.

"The Montagu's crab is a local species that used to be quite rare in our waters. We've been carrying out intertidal surveys at Portelet in the No Take Zone and that's proven the species is now taking over and behaving invasively as a result of warming sea temperatures."

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