Blog: What’s in Santa’s sack for Guernsey States? A not so jolly Christmas reshuffle

What’s that sound of shuffling you can hear, as you’re curled in front of the fire this Christmas? Is it the sound of Santa cramming himself down your chimney? Or the clip clopping of reindeer hooves on the roof, as ole St Nick arrives in style on your bungalow in the Castel? Perhaps it’s carol singers at the door?

No. It’s something far less fun - a Christmas reshuffle in the States of Guernsey. So, who’s going to be delivered a wodge of coal by Gavin St. Claus and who’s been nice for the last two years and could get a tasty Christmas treat?

Well, we don’t have executive government in Guernsey, which makes the exact content of Gavin St Pier’s naughty list irrelevant to a certain extent. But with political powerhouses like Deputy Lyndon Trott flanking him, as his lieutenant, the wishes of Policy and Resources (P&R) will no doubt shape how Guernsey’s government looks come February.

This period of political turbulence kicked off when Deputy Peter Ferbrache ignored the calls from Policy and Resources Committee’s advice to stand aside (as President of Economic Development) as he was investigated over claims surrounding the Office of the Public Trustee. He resigned instead, stating this as one of the reasons, as well as a general malaise with the States’ glacial pace of progress. The fact is Deputy Ferbrache has been looking for a way out of the States for the past 17/18 months since he failed to land the top job at P&R. Now he’s biding his time until the education debate is resolved and Economic Development’s green paper is debated (which is in doubt currently, but I’ll get to that later). I’d say he’ll likely resign entirely from the States in late January or early February and further add fuel to the fire of claims that ‘successful business people are forced out of the States’, a la Stuart Falla & to a lesser extent Roger Perrot.

Who will replace Deputy Ferbrache as President of Economic Development then? It’s a two horse race, with a clear favourite. Deputy Jan Kuttelwascher, Deputy Ferbrache’s right hand man was the first to put himself forward formally for the job and now looks the least likely to get it. Deputy Charles Parkinson is P&R’s preferred choice. His position as president of the States Trading Supervisory Board (STSB) will be challenged in debate at the election but from the conversations I’ve had, Deputy Parkinson looks a safe bet to land the job.

What will that mean? Well, Deputies Joe Mooney and Jan Kuttelwascher will leave the Committee. I’d say that’s as close to a sure thing as it comes. Deputies Jennifer Merrett and Andrea Dudley-Owen will likely stay, with the latter eyeing the presidency if she serves a second term.

Deputy Parkinson’s promotion to a principal committee will eventually leave a vacancy at STSB, a committee whose biggest piece of business will likely be debated as its President holds down two senior titles within the States. But in January, when Deputy Parkinson eventually resigns from STSB, who’ll replace him? My money is on Deputy Mark Dorey leaving Environment and Infrastructure, to become the President. His leadership experience and ability with figures will make him a prime candidate for the job but it certainly doesn’t mean this will be an uncontested election. There’s every chance, with a proclivity to all things waste, Deputies Kuttelwascher and Mooney may put themselves forward to become the top twosome at STSB. But don’t be surprised if Deputy Carl Meerveld doesn’t throw his hat into the ring.

Which brings me onto the other key conundrum in this Christmas reshuffle - what will happen at Education, Sport and Culture (ESC)?All indications are showing that the current ESC board will stay in post until January, despite political pressure to force the entire committee to step down before their own major policy letter is debated. At Friday’s Scrutiny Hearing, it was eluded to that collective responsibility for the ‘Meerveld PR blunder’ should be taken, with the entire committee stepping aside but again it seems that won’t be the case. We’ve also seen Deputy Gavin St Pier looking to bridge the gap between ESC and P&R, tweeting at the weekend:

One quirk of this week and the election of a new member of ESC is that we may see something for the first time in this system of government. A principal committee moving forward with four deputies on it. Why? Well, currently, I’ve not heard a single name asking to be on the current ESC committee and unless Deputy Meerveld’s hopes that Deputies Leadbeater or Mooney put themselves forward for the job, that could be the case. But if Deputy Kuttelwascher loses the election to become Economic Development President and Deputy Mooney follows him from ED, there could be a chance that one of them may put themselves forward.

But in January, if debate goes the way it is looking like it will, with the majority of deputies supporting ‘The Alternative Model’ (Two Schools), and then we will have a new ESC committee in February. Meaning in all likelihood Deputies Matt Fallaize, Richard Graham and Rhian Tooley will become part of that new board, being joined by any one of Deputy Peter Roffey, Deputy Sarah Hansmann Rouxel or Deputy Marc Leadbeater.

So a by-election, an islandwide voting referendum and new ED, STSB & ESC committees – is that what your Christmas list looks like? I’m not sure if mine does…