Labour's support in the Midlands 'broad but not deep' for General Election 2024

Right from the off the Tories were clearly on the defence.

Strange, considering the Prime Minister had the element of surprise with the ability to call the election whenever he wanted.

But in the two days after that rain-soaked announcement in Downing Street, Rishi Sunak held two campaign events in the Midlands.

Neither were held in Labour seats that the Tories wished to gain - instead he spoke to voters living in Tory seats - with many constituents who have probably only ever voted Conservative.

It started at biscuit distribution centre in Derbyshire. Sunak gave a stump speech to voters in the constituency of Erewash - which voted Tory by a majority of 10,606 in 2019.

One day later, after a trio to Wales and Northern Ireland, he was back. This time in the West Midlands and Cannock Chase which has an even bigger majority of 19,879.

His arrival there was delayed by pro-Palestine protesters heckling the PM as he arrived at Cannock Collage, his final stop of his UK tour after announcing the General Election date.

I asked him: "Why are we here today, on the second day of campaigning, in a seat where you have an almost 20,000 vote majority and you’ve held comfortably since 2010. Are you worried?"

Rishi Sunak said: "The last couple of days since the campaign started I’ve been out and about across the entire country.

"I stayed in the East Midlands yesterday, I’ve been in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, now here in the West Midlands.

"What I’m talking to people about is the future, we’ve had a difficult few years but we’ve now turned a corner, particularly with regard to the economy."

I asked: "Why are you doing this in a relatively safe seat, shouldn’t you be reaching out?"

He replied: “…For the rest of the campaign I’ll be out and about across the country because I’m keen to talk to as many people as possible.”

Analysis shows 90% of Mr Sunak’s visits have been to areas the Conservatives won in 2019.

That campaigning formula - ultimately not a winning one - was something we saw repeated week after week.

The PM’s message was challenged by those mistakes made by his two predecessors, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, mistakes Labour would describe as indefensible.

Commentators quickly came to the conclusion early on that the Conservatives knew they had no hope of winning the election.

Instead they were fighting to limit their losses in counties such as Derbyshire, Staffordshire and Warwickshire.

All that time Labour were hoping that slow and steady would win the race.

Their tortoise approach saw no major policy announcements and a lack of gaffs brought no major divinations from their course.

But even in the final week of campaigning Labour sources still appeared doubtful of the polls - many of which put them on course to win a “super majority” of MPs.

A term which became most commonly used by the Conservatives, warning of what an unchecked Labour government might do.

RESULTS RECONNING FOR RISHI

Ultimately for many voters this election was less about hope for the future but about punishment for the past.

A vote against the Conservatives, not an overwhelming endorsement of Labour.

Labour’s support at this election has proven to be broad but not deep. The party has brought together a coalition of voters that, in practice, don’t sit well together.

It now has MP’s in constituencies like inner city Birmingham, where the plight of Palestinians is foremost on their minds. But it also has MPs in places, traditionally Conservative, where voters have very different concerns.

Negotiating that over the next five years will not be easy.

The majority won at this election, in the face of a crumbling Conservative Party, could well disappear just as quickly as it was formed.

Have you heard our new podcast Talking Politics? Every day in the run-up to the election Tom, Robert and Anushka dig into the biggest issues dominating the political agenda…