Brexit Day is here - but what's next?
By Gareth Owen, Political Reporter
We have finally arrived at Brexit Day. But for such a big moment, none of us will really notice much difference today.
We carry on as we were. We continue to follow EU rules. We continue to stick to the same travel agreements. The only difference; we no longer have any British politicians in Brussels writing those rules. We are in a "transition period" designed to smooth our path to departure.
Of course there may be some gradual changes for the better over the next few weeks. People who have held off moving house are already dipping their toes back into the market.
Businesses are starting to invest once more. The uncertainty of 2018 and 2019 has given way to stability, and that could see a mini-boost to the economy.
But the really big change will come in eleven months .. on New Years Eve. That's when this arrangement ends. So what are we changing to? No-one knows.
The arguments over Brexit will not go away. The rest of 2020 will be taken up by thrashing out our future relationship with the EU.
Why is that important? Because the EU is - by far - the UK's biggest trading partner. And whatever the rights and wrongs of Brexit, there are thousands of Midlands jobs which depend on getting that relationship right.
The Midlands as a whole sold around 20 billion pounds worth of goods to EU countries in the year before the referendum. If there are suddenly big export taxes, or expensive and complicated checks on those goods, Midlands businesses could find them much more difficult to shift.
Their European customers could go elsewhere. Customers in countries like Japan could go elsewhere. Those taxes, those checks ... they are what will be decided between now and New Years Eve. There is a lot to play for.
I've spent much of the last week speaking to people who run small and medium-sized businesses in the Midlands. Some were Leavers. Some were Remainers. But ALL agreed they wanted a close trade deal with the EU.
Most were confident too. They trust Boris Johnson, and believe a deal is inevitable: "the EU need us as much as we need them." And the fact that we already share the same rules as Europe should make it easier.
But in the same week, Birmingham City University released a report about the potential impact of Brexit on the Midlands. One of the authors, Professor Alex de Ruyter, told me that - yes - a "No Deal" Brexit would harm the EU.
But nowhere near as much as it would harm the UK. He believed the EU will have the upper hand, and that there is a very real possibility of going into 2021 with no trade arrangement in place.
If that were to happen it would wipe out one of the other businesses I visited. Charles Sercombe runs a sheep farm in Leicestershire. If no deal is secured, his many European customers would have to pay a 40% tax on top of the cost of his lamb. He would become completely uncompetitive overnight.
And then there are the messy compromises and trade-offs which are a reality of negotiations like this:
Would Boris Johnson have to agree to more immigration in order to get the best deal with the EU? And would his supporters accept that?
Would he have to agree to lower food standards in order to get a deal with the USA? And would UK shoppers accept that?
Would he have to ditch plans to make Google and Amazon pay more tax, if an "America First" President threatens to retaliate with high tariffs on British cars?
There is a lot riding on the next few months.
In practical terms nothing significant will change tonight at 11pm. But one big thing does change: Brexit stops being a theory. It becomes reality. Boris Johnson can no longer simply say that the future is bright. He will have to deliver that bright future.
Watch more from Gareth on Brexit Day below:
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