Amber weather warning in place as snow expected for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire

After a mild and dry February – and a quiet start to the meteorological Spring – winter has decided to bite back this week with a cold arctic plunge across the UK.

This brings a return to winter hazards - widespread frosts, with temperatures dipping below average by day and night. The risk of ice where anything wet freezes, and an increased risk of showers falling as hail, sleet and snow.

Winds will be cold and strong, so there will also be a significant wind chill for the time of year.

What is happening with the weather?

The cold air is already across almost all of the UK, so hail and snow showers by this point will be falling at lower levels too. 

Showers are forming along the north and northeasterly winds and therefore northern and eastern parts of the region are, at this stage, most likely to see more frequent spells of snow through the first part of this week.

Between 2-5cm snow is possible over the North York Moors and the Dales, for example.  Coastal areas like Scarborough and Whitby have already seen some snow. Warnings are already in place for North Yorkshire and the coastline through into Thursday morning.

When will it snow and how disruptive will it be?

The air mass is relatively dry and clear - meaning some lovely spells for many areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. But then everything changes on Thursday, as an area of low pressure (housing warmer and wetter air) sweeps in from the southwest.

Higher risk of significant disruption through Thursday

As the warmer air hits the colder air over the UK it is expected to turn to snow.

This could bring significant disruption. The snow could be heavy and prolonged. 

Widely 5-10cm of snow could fall, but over higher ground - with strong winds and drifting a possibility - there could be in excess of 30cm.

At the moment the snow is expected to arrive through the second part of Thursday. This will cause significant impacts and dangerous driving conditions.

Is it another Beast from the East?

Not really. The set-up and weather pattern in 2018 was very different to the forecast for 6-9 March 2023. This time we have an Arctic blast from the north. In 2018 it was a fetch of extremely cold air that had travelled from the far east, Siberia.

Either way, when it's cold and snow falls and settles – and is accompanied by strong winds – the end result is very similar in the short-term. 

How long will it last?

The main snow hazards are likely to last from Thursday into early Friday, but through the day on Friday the snow is expected to ease off – turn lighter and more showery – and could well be falling as sleet and rain at lower levels by this time.  Pennine areas continue to be at risk.

There is the potential for further weather fronts to make it into the cold air into the weekend, but we have to get through this week's weather event first.