Does MSP's decision to quit signal trouble ahead for Scottish Conservatives?

By Kieran Andrews, Scotland's Political Editor

And so it begins. Oliver Mundell has told local party members that he will stand down as the MSP for Dumfriesshire at next year’s Holyrood election.

He will not be the only Conservative politician who does not return to the Scottish parliament in May 2026.

Polling consistently suggests that a good number of Mr Mundell’s current colleagues will not have the luxury of choosing to depart the frontline.

Three big issues have hurt the Scottish Tories. A series of disasters at Westminster – from Boris Johnson’s scandal-hit administration, personified by partygate, through to Liz Truss and her “mini” budget – tainted the brand north of the border even if most MSPs were as horrified as the general public.

The second problem was the resurgence of Labour in Scotland. Even if the pitfalls for a Scottish party being overshadowed by unhelpful actions by its UK ministerial colleagues are beginning to become apparent to Anas Sarwar and his colleagues.

Nevertheless, a significant number of unionists who cast their ballots tactically based largely on who is best placed to defeat the SNP switched their ballot box allegiance from blue to red at the general election.

Many of these people had made the reverse journey in the wake of the independence referendum as Labour appeared to go through an existential crisis in Scotland and there is no guarantee how they will vote in 2026.

The third problem applies to the Tories across the UK and is a worry for all pro-UK parties: the steady rise of Reform UK.

They are consistently polling in double figures in Scotland and that theoretical support appears to be largely backed up by council by-election results.

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay has pitched his party as the purveyors of “common sense” in an effort to carve out a niche that stands apart from what he calls the “cosy consensus” at Holyrood.

He knows that – even if he is able to relatively revive Tory fortunes – it will not be a quick turnaround.

His problem is that people are going to the polls in 15 months but Mr Findlay was bullish in an interview on Thursday with ITV Border.

Reform secured between 7 per cent and 9 per cent in each of the South of Scotland seats at last year’s general election.

These would be relatively small but significant returns in a Holyrood contest because not only would they potentially threaten the Tories in tight constituencies, they would see Reform gain regional list MSPs probably at the expense of Mr Findlay’s candidates.

He may also be about to find that another perennial problem for Scottish Conservative leaders will bubble back up and cause him a headache.

Multiple sources say that the splits which burst out into the open during last summer’s leadership contest to replace Douglas Ross remain in the MSP group.

“What he hasn’t done is sought to build any bridges,” said one critic. However, most of the disgruntled recognise that he won a convincing mandate to implement his plans even if they are uncomfortable with the direction he is taking the party.

His defeated leadership rival Murdo Fraser, who Mr Findlay kept on as economy spokesman, this week wrote a column for The Scotsman where he warned that “shifting towards Reform’s policy agenda might well be counterproductive”.

Not an attack on Mr Findlay but a warning shot that caused previous Scottish Tory leaders who have found themselves under so-called friendly fire to raise an eyebrow about what might come next.

So what can Mr Findlay do? He needs to find a way to cut through with the electorate and – to use that good Scottish word – connect with those scunnered, discontented voters if he wants to avoid damaging losses at the next election.

In the positive column for his chances, he knows what his pitch is. The big challenge now is to deliver it.

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