Volatile voters projected to bring big swings in Cumbria

For many years, the Liberals (followed by the Liberal Democrats) were strong in the Scottish Borders, West Cumbria was a Labour heartland, and the Conservatives controlled Penrith & The Border.

In the last decade or so, the Tories gradually took over just about everywhere in our region.

Their famous 2017 by-election win in Copeland was an example of the traditional Labour 'red wall' crumbling before anyone called it that.

In 2019, neighbouring Workington was identified as the home of the quintessential northern voter who switched to the Conservatives.

Their domination of the region at the last general election - shown in the map above - was quite remarkable.

In fact, election experts have crunched the numbers and said that the region would have been all blue, had that last election been fought according to the new constituency boundaries this one will be fought on.

So, rather confusingly, Westmorland & Lonsdale is being defended by the Conservatives now, even if the Liberal Democrats have held it since 2005.

It's the only place in Cumbria we've seen one of the main party leaders so far during this campaign.

Ed Davey donned a wetsuit (as opposed to the wet suit the Prime Minister ended up with after announcing the election in the Downing Street rain) and repeatedly fell off a paddle board into Windermere.

He said it was to highlight the Lib Dems' pledges around tackling sewage, and has taken a similar approach elsewhere, using photo opportunities on rollercoasters and water slides to get attention for the party and their policies.

We've seen no sign of the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer locally, except for in a party election broadcast filmed in the Lake District.

Former footballer and Labour supporter Gary Neville gently interviewed him about his plans for government and memories of family holidays in the area, which he'd spoken about in his party conference speech last autumn.

The Prime Minister hasn't stopped off in our region yet, amid suspicions that the Tories have given up on the north and are focusing on trying to defend some core seats down south.

They've had big opinion poll deficits since Liz Truss' brief premiership, and hopes those might narrow in the final weeks have been checked by further setbacks, most recently investigations into Conservatives betting on the election date.

Aside from the Lib Dems winning Westmorland & Lonsdale, several recent opinion poll models have projected Labour winning all of the Cumbrian constituencies now, knocking the Tories out of the county in a reverse of what happened in 2019.

North of the border, First Minister John Swinney has campaigned in Dumfries, and the SNP were much closer to the Conservatives than Labour in the South of Scotland in 2019.

Those three constituencies are more likely to stay blue, but little is guaranteed, with ten days to go and voters looking volatile, certainly in historical terms.

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