SNP leadership: 'There will be a coronation, not a contest'

So, after days of "will she, won't she?", we got the answer this afternoon.

Kate Forbes will not stand to become leader of the SNP, and Scotland's next First Minister. There will be a coronation, not a contest.

Barring a late challenger unexpectedly emerging before nominations close on Monday John Swinney will be crowned - in a political sense - next week, taking over from Humza Yousaf.

The question in Holyrood is why did Ms Forbes, who ran Mr Yousaf extremely close in the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon just over a year ago, not throw her hat in the ring.

The answer appears to lie in a mix of pragmatism and principle - as is often the case when political decisions are made.

Most observers believe that Mr Swinney, a former party leader, ex-deputy First Minister, and party stalwart for four decades would have been harder to beat than Mr Yousaf nearly was.

He had also, as we subsequently learned, offered her a big job in government if she stood aside and backed him. That's the pragmatic bit.

The principle lies in the direction Ms Forbes wants to take the party. She has been critical of aspects of the now defunct coalition deal the SNP had with the Scottish Greens.

Her fears, shared by some within her party, were that by adopting more radical policies on climate change the Scottish government was seen as anti-growth and out of touch with the public.

Not everyone in the SNP shared this view, and the Greens hotly dispute it. But it was obvious that, for good or ill, the administration had been moved further to the Left as a result of the two party alliance.

In a carefully crafted speech announcing his candidacy this morning, Mr Swinney said this:

"Only the SNP stand where the majority of people want their government to be, in the moderate centre-left of Scottish politics.

"That is where I stand. And, if elected by my party and by Parliament, my goals as First Minister will come straight from that moderate centre-left tradition – the pursuit of economic growth and of social justice.

"Economic growth, not for its own sake, but to support the services and society we all want to see."

In her statement released this afternoon, Ms Forbes said that the two had "frank and constructive" talks and what had emerged was they shared "a powerful common purpose for the country".

Of the areas they agreed on she added: "It also includes an understanding that economic growth and tackling poverty must again be key priorities, and that a just transition to ‘net zero’ must work with, and not against, our communities and businesses.

"But more than that, John is clear that he is determined to return the SNP to governing from the mainstream. Competent, candid government earning the trust of the people.

"That was the vision I offered in the last leadership contest, and is evidently demanded by the Scottish public.

"It became obvious listening to Mr Swinney that by the time he made his announcement, he knew his possible rival was not going to challenge him, and that they had agreed common ground between them. And so it turned out. The reaction of the opposition to the likely new combination at the top of the Scottish government was not exactly subtle, not uncommon in partisan exchanges.

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Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross said: “Kate Forbes has caved into SNP demands for a stitch-up to install John Swinney as leader and spare the party the bloodbath of another leadership contest.

“But this shady backroom deal won’t cover-up the bitter splits that exist within the SNP – it just applies a sticking plaster to a gaping wound.

"We'll be hearing a lot of this kind of thing in the run up to the UK election and beyond. Observers think the polls suggest their fortunes have dipped so far that they may face a huge challenge for the UK elections.

But the next Holyrood ballot will be in 2026, giving more time to reset and recalibrate.

The question is whether that is a credible line of attack, whether it chimes with what the public think, and what it is sustainable?

If - and it is an "if" - Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes can unite what they accept has been a divided party, and restore stability, they will still face the many challenges of government including incumbency.

But they will potentially be more formidable opponents for the Tories, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats.