Could Dumfries & Galloway lead Scotland out of lockdown?
The coronavirus crisis is, first and foremost, a human tragedy. It's about lives lost, lives damaged, lives changed forever.
But the debate about COVID-19 is also about numbers - how we count it, and what the statistics can tell us about how to combat this deadly virus.
Central to this is the 'R number', a figure that tells us how fast the disease reproduces. Put simply, if R is above 1, the numbers affected by the virus will soar. If it's below 1, the numbers should decline.
Nicola Sturgeon has said one of the reasons she has not eased lockdown restrictions in Scotland to the extent they have been in England is because the R is higher north of the Border.
Which is why figures presented by NHS Dumfries & Galloway to councillors make for fascinating reading.
According to the presentation the 'R' value for Dumfries & Galloway on 8 May was 0.75 (within a range of .69 to .82), compared to 0.98 for Scotland (between 0.90 and 1.06).
While no-one would claim this proves the virus has been beaten, it certainly suggests that it is under control and the south-west is in a better position than Scotland as a whole.
And that at least raises the possibility of different parts of Scotland coming out of lockdown at a different pace, something I asked the First Minister about at her media briefing today.
She told me: "I've never ruled out regional variations, if both the evidence backs up that kind of approach, and we judge that they can be implemented in a practical and clearly understandable way, so we don't rule that out, although we are not at this stage proposing that kind of regionally varying approach within Scotland."
Ms Sturgeon's political opponents may see this as the First Minister having her constitutional cake and eating it. Insisting on cross-border differences based on the R number but not doing the same inside Scotland.
They might equally argue that Ms Sturgeon saying that any differences which need to be "practical and clearly understandable" would apply to the variations between England and Scotland.
The First Minister will, of course, disagree with that and she and her acting chief medical officer, Gregor Smith, both warned about the difficulties in getting an R figure for smaller geographical areas.
At a briefing for journalists this morning her government statisticians, politically impartial civil servants, were making exactly the same point.As this is important I asked NHS Dumfries & Galloway how they arrived at this figures.
They told me "The numbers which we presented were provided as a means to try and verify our own local assessment of the R number within Dumfries and Galloway, and shape our approaches to COVID-19 within the region."
NHS Dumfries & Galloway were keen to stress the "considerable degree of uncertainty"and "highlight the fragility of the R number and the impact that could result from even small changes in social distancing and compliance with the national lockdown".
They added: "It was stressed to local elected members that our assessment of the R value locally is predicated on the compliance of our local community with national directions, and the potential impact of any changes.
I also asked if the difference between the Scotland-wide and local figures meant the lockdown measures in Dumfries & Galloway could be safely eased, possibly ahead of the rest of Scotland?
Here is their reply: "We are very keen to support and reinforce the national messaging in Scotland that people should continue to stay home in order to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, should continue to observe social distancing, and should maintain good hygiene, particularly around hand washing.
"We are very aware that any small change in lockdown compliance could have a significant impact on the demand for health services locally.
"We believe the fantastic public response in Dumfries and Galloway in complying with the lockdown measures has played a role in helping us to avoid an overwhelming surge in cases which might have been anticipated in the first wave of this outbreak.
"We will continue to promote this important messaging until such time as there is any change."
I asked NHS Borders similar questions to the ones I put to NHS Dumfries & Galloway and was, instead, sent a response from the Scottish government.So I cannot tell you what the view of NHS Borders is on what is an important issue for people in the south of Scotland.
However, in a statement a Scottish Government spokesperson said: “There is a level of uncertainty in the R number for Scotland (currently between 0.7 and 1.0). There will be significantly more uncertainty in estimating R for parts of the country as the numbers involved will of course be smaller.
"As such, it is important to use a range of statistics such as the daily information on cases, hospital and ICU use and deaths to help understand the spread and impact of Covid across Scotland.”