BLOG: A sensational exit poll

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The exit poll. Credit: ITV News

  • Blog posted at 11:20pm

Although it is only an exit poll, tonight's prediction of the Tories falling short, Labour gaining and the SNP down, is sensational.

I have been in touch with people from all the parties in Scotland and, while they are urging caution, they think that the general thrust of the exit poll is probably right.

Which means what? Well, a likely hung UK parliament, with no party in overall control.

But also that it once again proves that Scotland is a different country politically from the rest of the UK.

Once, Scotland bucked the trend and voted Labour while the Tories swept the rest of the UK.

Then Scotland fell out of love with Labour and moved to the Scottish National Party, again different from the UK - if that's not a statement of the obvious.

If this exit poll is correct, and we still have to add this caveat, then Scotland will have been different again.

Yes, the SNP will have 'won' the election, in terms of getting the largest number of seats.

But it would be a huge setback for the Nationalists who were trying to hold on to as many of the incredible 56 seats they took in 2015.

It will also be a blow for the SNP's campaign for a second independence referendum, though the party will maintain it has a Holyrood vote and a Holyrood mandate for that.

At this stage, we don't know which party has taken seats from the SNP but it is reasonable to assume that the Conservatives have done well.

Which raises the possibility that the Tories under Ruth Davidson in Scotland have done better than the Tories at a UK level under Theresa May.

It also appears to show that the apparent death of Labour Scotland has been somewhat exaggerated, as has the strange death of Liberal Scotland.

Again, we don't know for sure at this stage, but if the poll is correct then in the South of Scotland, the Tories will take all three seats, winning two from the SNP and keeping the one they hold.

So there would be a band of Tory blue across the south of Scotland, just north of Hadrian's wall.

And finally for now, at a UK level, just about everyone - including many of his MP colleagues - thought Jeremy Corbyn would be useless, a loser.

It looks like those Labour MPs - and most commentators - were wrong about that.