Poll boost for SNP

To the losers belong the spoils.

Yes, you did read that correctly.

The original saying, of course, has the victors taking the spoils - in war, or in politics.

In Scotland that phrase has been turned on its head, with the SNP getting a huge boost in membership after losing the independence referendum and Labour's plunged into a leadership contest after Johann Lamont resigned.This unexpected role reversal has been further reinforced by the latest poll of Westminster voting intentions.

The Ipsos MORI survey puts the SNP on 52%, Scottish Labour on 23%, the Scottish Conservatives on 10%, the Scottish Liberal Democrats on 6%, the same as the Scottish Green Party, with UKIP on 2%.

Now this is only one poll, but it suggests that, were the results repeated, the SNP would win 54 seats north of the Border, Labour just four, and the Lib Dems one. There would be none for the Tories.

In the south of Scotland this survey suggests the SNP would win all three seats - from Lib Dem Michael Moore, Labour's Russell Brown and the Conservative David Mundell.

Now even the SNP, on it's surprise post-referendum roll, does not think this virtual wipe out of Labour is likely.

But the poll does illustrate the Nationalist's post-referendum revival.Ed Miliband must be wishing he had picked another day to come to Scotland. He's at a Gala dinner tonight in Glasgow.

Not only will he be asked about the resignation last week of Ms Lamont and her remarks that Scotland was treated like a "branch office by UK Labour.

But also he’ll face questions about this poll which, even it it exaggerates the position, is not good news for his party.

Today I spoke to the latest Labour candidate to declare, shadow international development secretary and MP Jim Murphy, who many tip to take over from Ms Lamont.

Where does he stand in the party? He says the term Blairite, which has been applied to him, only applies now to the former Prime Minister.

The only tag he wants to lose is "losing Labour" in Scotland. He wants to come to Holyrood - we're not sure how yet and he is not saying - and become First Minister.

The SNP, not surprisingly, is rather enjoying Labour’s discomfort.

I also spoke today to Nicola Sturgeon, who is set to take over as First Minister from Alex Salmond next month.

I put it to her that a criticism of her government in our region was that power was too centralised in Edinburgh.

Her reply was that she did not believe they were. She believes in taking power from Westminster, and passing that down further from Holyrood, she says.

But she did promise to listen to what people had to say on this issue when she speaks in Easterbrook Hall Dumfries tomorrow night.

But the over all picture is still very strange. You would be forgiven for thinking the SNP had won the referendum, and Labour had been on the losing side.

Labour, is downcast, divided and looking inward.

The SNP which lost - and lost badly in the south of Scotland - has a spring in its step.

And Ms Sturgeon is on a rock and roll style tour of the nation, complete with tour tee-shirts (I kid you not), still making the case for independence and firing up activists for the UK election next May.

The task for Ms Sturgeon is to maintain that momentum and win more Westminster seats even it that is well short of what this poll predicts.

She dreams of the SNP - quite possibly led by Alex Salmond returned as an MP - holding the balance of power in a hung Westminster parliament.

Then it would be game on for, at the very least, far greater devolution and, who knows, perhaps even a second referendum.

The imperative for whoever leads Labour is to stop her. That is not impossible. Although Labour's machine is creaking at the seams, it has in the past managed to turn out the vote in Westminster elections at least.

So the SNP can potentially be stopped. The losers in September can become the losers next May.

But with Scottish voters in the mood they are in Labour cannot count on this happening. It will require a monumental effort.