Blog: Never underestimate the SNP

The Scottish National Party is celebrating its 80th birthday this year.

For much of that time the SNP was on the margins of Scottish politics.

They had highs in terms of sending 11 MPs to Westminster in 1974, but their fortune waned again after that.

For many years they were seen as something of an irrelevance to politics with the great battle in Scotland being between Labour and the Tories.

The SNP also had something of a reputation for being a disputatious party.

There were schisms and divisions going right back to when a young Alex Salmond was thrown out of the party for being part of the radical left-wing ’79 Group.

Even after the creation of the Scottish parliament they spend two terms in opposition at Holyrood and the then leader John Swinney faced a divisive leadership challenge.

He survived, but eventually resigned in 2004 to be replaced by Mr Salmond who then engineered a return from Westminster where he had retreated to being an MP again after serving in the first Scottish parliament.

The party began to become more disciplined and surprised everyone by just winning the 2007 Holyrood election.

It formed the first nationalist government, albeit as a minority administration. History was made.

But no one ever thought that in a parliament elected under a proportional system any party, let alone the SNP, would ever win an outright majority.

But they did. Another piece of history.

And that is why Scotland will now have an independence referendum in September.

Over the last month or so I have interviewed the leaders of the main parties at Holyrood and in the Westminster parliament, as well as Mr Salmond.

For David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg their visits to their Scottish parties’ conference were part of their hectic routine.

Yes, the campaign to keep Scotland in the Union means a lot to all of them, but all three have many other political plates to keep spinning.

For Mr Salmond and the SNP, meeting for their last major conference in Aberdeen this weekend before the referendum, there is only one focus.

They are as close as they have ever been to their long-held objective of independence.

In their heart of hearts, many thought they would never even get to a referendum.

So this is it. A once in a lifetime opportunity they are determined not to waste.

SNP strategists I have been talking to in Aberdeen believe they can win, despite still being behind in the polls.

This is for many reasons but here are two important ones.

First, they think their Unionist opponents have underestimated them.

Given that no one believed they would ever win an outright majority at Holyrood, this claim has some validity.

The second reason is the enthusiasm and commitment of their activists with their cherished cause to sell.

SNP strategists say the pro-Union Better Together campaign just does not have this fire in its belly for what the Nationalists are calling the “ground war” - campaigning out on the doorsteps across Scotland.

For their part, Better Together claim they are not complacent but point to their still being ahead in public opinion surveys.

They admit in private that major interventions by Westminster politicians – for example George Osborne, Ed Balls and Danny Alexander all saying Scotland could not use Sterling – have yet to have the full impact they expected.

But they say issues like the currency – along with defence, the border, social security and pensions – will, in the end, sway enough people to secure a ‘No’ vote in September.

There is still a long way to go, of course, and with the party conferences finishing we are now in for what will be in effect an extended campaign up to September 18.

It is not certain that Alex Salmond can overcome the massed forces of Unionism and lead Scotland to what he calls “freedom”.

If you based predictions on the average of polls, it might be said it is not even a possibility.

However, the history of the SNP and its long journey from the fringes of politics to power should at least make their Unionist opponents wary.

We’ve learned one lesson in recent Scottish politics: never underestimate Alex Salmond and the modern Scottish National Party.