It's turning cold - so will we see snow next week across the southern half of England?

With 2024 on track to being the warmest year on record, can it turn cold enough for snow next week? ITV meteorologist Aisling Creevey assesses the chances.

After some windy weather from Storm Ashley in early September, it has been a quiet autumn. Day and night temperatures have remained above average so there has been very little frost and plenty of guaranteed dry weather.

Forecasting for the next two to five days has been more correct as high pressure dominates and the weather has remained slow moving - and in this case straightforward to predict.

A change in the weather is imminent and cold weather is around the corner. The questions then become: How cold will it get? Is it cold enough for snow? Will there be a weather set up that could create snow?

The short answer is: absolutely yes.

By Tuesday cold air from the Arctic will flood across the UK making way for wintry showers, windy weather and very cold nights. So what about snow?

The graphic above shows that less cold air from the Atlantic will get mixed with very cold air from the Arctic. Where these two air masses meet, there is the possibility of snow.

There is still some disagreement in the weather models as to where the snow line will sit but there is some clarity now and the Met Office have already issued weather warnings for wintry weather next week across Scotland and northern England.

It takes very little snow to create disruption, particularly across the southern half of England where on average there is very little snow.

Even the smallest amount of snow can create slippery surfaces where tyres struggle to grip and that's when disruption starts.

It's not unusual for it to snow in November - it happened late in the month last year, when snow hit Scotland, the north of England and even as far south as East Anglia.

However, this year it's notable as until now it has been so mild and we've seen temperatures you'd expect to have seen in September - so this cold snap will be a shock to many.

All eyes now will be on the forecast as it develops: it's turning cold and the next few days will start to close in on where the snow line will sit and the word of the week will be 'wind chill'.

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