Is this the end of Syria’s long nightmare? 

Syrians gather in celebration days after the fall of Bashar Assad's government on Thursday. Credit: AP

Almost 14 years after the Arab Spring spiralled into civil war will there now be a chance for that country to rebuild? The question is being asked with some urgency not just in the Middle East but also in Europe.

Arguably no country has had a greater impact on European politics in the last decade than Syria thanks to the human wave of refugees that flooded into the country in 2015.

Many blame it for the Brexit vote. It has certainly changed politics in Germany and maybe across eastern Europe as well.

So does the defeat of Bashar al-Assad mean that the crisis is now over, that arrivals by small boat across the Mediterranean will stop, maybe even be reversed?

It took less than two days for Europe’s politicians to suspend the processing of asylum applications from Syria in the hope that the great return was about to begin.

The message today from both the UN and many Syrian refugees who have found their way to Europe is that it’s much too early to tell.

Again and again, people told me that they just don’t know about the country’s new ruler Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Whether he has really shaken off his past associations with ISIS and al-Qaeda and whether his rule will really bring peace.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaking at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus in December 2024. Credit: AP

And there is an understandable fear among Syrians of being forced back. Some have been in Europe for so long, and have worked so hard to assimilate that they, and particularly their children, would find any return very hard indeed.

Often for their children, it wouldn’t be "going back" at all.

Syrians have been returning in large numbers from exile in Turkey and Lebanon, but there are almost a million in Germany alone. The dislocations in both countries of a widescale return would be enormous.

At the moment this seems a way off, but Austria is already talking about organising a "repatriation and deportation programme".

With an election due in Germany early next year, it’s not hard to imagine the centre-right and the far-right will compete with each other to appear the toughest in reversing the immigration trend of the last ten years.


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