Syria in turmoil : What a disastrous year this has been for Iran’s so-called axis of resistance

When Hamas terrorists launched their monstrous assault on southern Israel in October last year, they hoped it would be a rallying cry that would summon other Tehran proxies to join in and batter Israel on several fronts.

Well, it’s Israel who ended up doing the battering and to such an extent that Syria’s Assad regime - one of the corner stones of Iran’s sphere of influence - is now under threat.

Talk about unforeseen and unintended consequences.

Assad needed Russia, Iran and Hezbollah to survive when rebels sought to topple him a decade ago, but now his triumvirate of protectors is weakened and/or preoccupied elsewhere.

The Islamist rebels know that and timed their assault appropriately.

Another geopolitical scrap has opened up.

This could precipitate a new humanitarian crisis for Syria and its neighbours.

It’s a mirror image of what happened after the Arab Spring uprising, when more than 10 million citizens, mainly Sunnis, were displaced.

This time, Assad’s supporters who are mainly Shia, will be on the move.

This looks like it will develop into yet another Arab tragedy. But it also has global consequences because it will stretch the Russians and the Iranians.

How far will they go to prop up Assad? The Russians will be anxious to hang on to the port city of Tartus, their foothold in the Mediterranean.

One positive consequence of the convulsions in Syria could be the firming up of the ceasefire in Lebanon.

The Iranians will be even less inclined to let Hezbollah act in any way that threatens the truce.

Tehran has been unusually muted since the re-election of Donald Trump. There’s been no more fighting talk about retaliating against Israel.

After a debilitating 2024, the Iranians will be re-considering their strategy and priorities for 2025.

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