Israel and Hezbollah trade fire in countdown to possible ceasefire

As is often the case when combatants know the end is in sight, both Israel and Hezbollah are using what they suspect is the countdown to peace to demonstrate their ability to wage war.

The Shia militia has been firing dozens of rockets at northern and central Israel to show they remain undefeated, while Israeli warplanes have been hammering southern Beirut to maximise the number of targets struck before a ceasefire forces them to stop.

While a cessation is not a certainty, the signs are promising. Hezbollah have been weakened by the Third Lebanon War and consequently they have been forced to give ground.

They have dropped their insistence that they would stop firing at Israel only when a Gaza ceasefire is in place. They have also agreed to withdraw 20 or so miles from the border with Israel, essentially removing the threat they posed to northern Israeli communities.

While Hezbollah will be heading north, the IDF will be moving south, eventually withdrawing from Lebanon completely.

Negotiators envisage all this happening during a 60-day implementation period which should also see a strengthened Lebanese Army deployed along the border to make sure Hezbollah stay away.

If this peace plan sounds vaguely familiar that’s because it’s a copy and paste of the deal that ended the Second Lebanon War back in 2006.

The problem back then was implementation.

Hezbollah were not kept away from the border and so were in a position to attack Israel on October 8, 2023, one day after Hamas went on their murderous rampage in southern Israel.

This time implementation will be overseen by a five-country committee, led by the United States.

Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox every Friday morning.

Israel claims it will also be allowed to retain the right to strike if Hezbollah are seen to breach the terms of the deal by re-emerging in that border buffer zone that South Lebanon will become.

If the ceasefire comes into effect then Israel will have fulfilled its declared war aim to enable 60,000 residents of northern Israel to return home after 13 months of rocket fire kept them away.

That’s one of the big differences between the war in Lebanon and the war in Gaza. Israel wants to eradicate Hamas, but never declared the same intent towards Hezbollah.

A ceasefire should remove the possibility of a Middle East conflagration leading to World War Three. The longer the fighting in Lebanon went on the greater the possibility of Syrian and Iraqi involvement and Iranian escalation.

Those prospects should now fade away, much to the relief of the rest of the world.

Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To Know...