US long-range missiles won't turn the tide for Ukraine - but they could slow it

The story of western military aid for Ukraine follows a familiar trajectory.

First the request from Kyiv, met with refusal from her allies, then late in the day, the supply.

It’s been that way with modern battle tanks, fighter jets and now permission to use long range missiles inside Russia.

With the F16s and Leopard, Challenger and Abrams tanks, Ukraine said they’d be game changers. It turned out they were over-confident.

The war is moving, slowly but relentlessly, in Russia’s favour.

No-one believes long range missiles will turn the tide. But they might help slow it.

The Army Tactical Missile Systems - and potentially, Britain’s Storm Shadow missile system - will allow Ukraine to destroy army bases, ammunition dumps and supply routes hundreds of kilometres inside Russia.

For months, the Biden administration withheld permission – fearing it would inflame tensions.

We must wait to see if the outrage reaction from Moscow this morning is more than rhetoric.

The Economist's Defence Editor, Shashank Joshi, explains the impact these weapons could have on the frontline in Ukraine

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So what’s changed in Washington’s calculation?

Firstly, a Russia counter-attack expected imminently in the Ukrainian occupied Kursk region – fuelled by thousands of North Korean troops. Here, the long range missiles might aid Ukraine’s defence.

Secondly, and decisively, an incoming Trump White House that has vowed to end the war.

This move won’t hand Ukraine winning cards, but it might give Kyiv a better bargaining position if it is forced into peace talks.

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