‘Unlikely’ that NHS will meet 18-week waiting time target, say trust leaders

The government will not meet its ambition of getting NHS waiting times down to 18 weeks without investing in more capacity for primary care, children’s services and mental health, according to trust leaders.

They warned there is a “fundamental mismatch” between demand for services and what the NHS is able to do.

The NHS Providers’ annual State of the Provider Sector survey - which included responses from 171 leaders across 118 trusts - found almost all (96%) are concerned about the forthcoming winter.

It found almost three-quarters of trust leaders (71%), and all bosses from acute specialist and ambulance trusts, think it is unlikely or very unlikely that the NHS can meet 18 weeks over the next five years.

The top three biggest issues are the delayed discharge of patients once fit to leave, social care capacity, and the number of beds.

The Labour government has outlined its ambition to ensure 92% of patients receive care within 18 weeks within the next five years.

To meet the target, it has pledged to deliver an extra two million NHS appointments a year.

The waiting list stands at 7.6 million. In August 282,664 people in England have been waiting more than a year to start routine hospital treatment.

The boss of one NHS trust said: “If you think, there were seven million people on a waiting list, and as fast as you take them off, currently, we’re putting more people on.

“So that is a huge numbers game that’s going to cost a huge amount of money, unless you can do something to arrest the increase of people going on to waiting lists.

“If you don’t create the capacity in primary care, in children’s services, in mental health, you can’t do the management of people properly in the community and stop them getting so acutely unwell.”

The boss of a trust that provides community and mental health services warned children are being “let down” amid “enormous” waiting lists.

“It’s really disappointing to see how absent children are, first of all in terms of policy, and I couldn’t account more strongly the extent to which I think they are being let down collectively,” they said.

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Last month, the government said its 10-year plan for the health service will include shifting more care from hospitals into the community.

In her Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves described the £22.6 billion increase in the day-to-day health budget as a “down payment” on the 10-year plan.

She also insisted it will “bring waiting lists down more quickly” and towards the 18-week target.

However, Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers said the funding “needs to cover significant costs”, such as pay rises.

“The big 22-plus billion pounds is across two years and then, when you drill into that, it needs to cover significant costs that are already allocated.

“In terms of those allocations, I think they’re big numbers, they’re welcome numbers, but, in terms of outgoings already slated, we know that they’re not going to go that far.”

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