Why Donald Trump’s re-election is a potential crisis for Sir Keir Starmer

Credit: PA/ AP

Trump’s re-election is a global earthquake, and some of the strongest shocks will be felt in the UK and Europe.

These are the three big reasons why:

  • The UK and Europe are too dependent on the US military and its defence industry, at a time when Putin’s land grab in Ukraine threatens our security directly and the Middle East tumult risks dangerous escalation - and when Trump talks of securing a fast peace with Putin on terms that could be presented as a victory by the Russian dictator.

  • The UK and European economies are growing too sluggishly to adequately deliver the living standards and public services demanded by citizens - and Trump’s threat of swingeing tariffs and a new age of protectionism could turn low growth into permafrost.

  • The cohesion of all our societies are being shaken by a social and digital media that daily challenges truth and fact - and which promotes hysteria, grievance and resentment. Trump’s pact with Musk means there is no chance that the digital misinformation beast will be tamed. The populist far right will be emboldened everywhere.

There is now a massive geopolitical choice for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Does he ditch his cautious, incrementalist approach to restoring economic, trade and diplomatic relations with the EU in favour of something that looks more like a big bang?

He’ll be under enormous pressure from his supporters, the Lib Dem party and Greens to go much faster than he instinctively wishes to restore trade integration with the EU and build a new security integration.

Apart from anything else, the UK will now be under intense pressure to increase defence spending.

Quite how that will be affordable is unclear, unless the government secures a growth boost by rejoining the EU’s single market.

Starmer at prime minister's question after it was announced Trump won the election. Credit: PA

Or does Starmer stick with relatively timid incremental changes to the UK's relationship with the EU, and make a brave bet that he can work constructively with an emboldened Trump?

From what I'm told Trump admires what he sees as Starmer’s untrammelled control of parliament, while nursing a grievance at what looked to Trump like a coordinated Labour plan to help Kamala Harris.

Trump has historically been contemptuous of the EU. He would not be impressed by any perception that Starmer and the UK would choose friendship and loyalty to Brussels, Paris and Berlin over Washington.

But Starmer will have to choose.

Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox every Friday morning.

Want an expert briefing on US politics and the presidential race? Listen to our latest podcast Talking Politics USA