Donald Trump's last stand: Can he win the US election?

Donald Trump faces several federal indictments. Attention will likely return to his legal jeopardy after the election. Credit: AP

By ITV News Correspondent Robert Moore

We are now about to discover the answer to the greatest question in American politics: Can Donald Trump pull off another improbable victory, confounding the establishment once more?

He is likely destined for federal-funded housing either way. But will it be the White House? Or a prison cell? Remember, if he loses the election, he faces immense legal jeopardy in multiple cases.

The final polling shows a dead heat, with paths to victory for both Trump and Kamala Harris. But the political class - the pundits, the analysts, the Washington insiders - believe that Trump has framed his closing argument so badly - and offended so many critical voting groups - that he is likely to lose both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

If he loses, then many people will point to the hubris of his Madison Square Garden rally on 27th October. It was there that a Trump-supporting comedian decided it would be funny to call Puerto Rico an "island of garbage."

Surprise, surprise, that didn't amuse vital Hispanic voters.

The comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke calling Puerto Rico 'a floating island of garbage' at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally. Credit: AP

Trump has struggled to stay on message throughout the campaign and has driven his handlers and advisers mad with frustration for his lack of discipline and rambling performances at his rallies.

But there is still a way for him to win. That path requires another 2016-style uprising by disillusioned working class voters who feel betrayed by the Washington establishment. We find these voters all across America, and there grievances are real.

They ask why foreign countries are sent billions in aid while US cities are decaying and rural communities are struggling.

They ask why Democrats only appear to care for minority communities when it is election time.

If that dissatisfaction has taken traction to an extent not registered by pollsters, Trump will win tonight.

We have seen an anti-incumbency mood all over the world. Voters have shown disdain for ruling governments in Australia, Japan, Italy, Germany and Britain.

Is it now America's turn to shake the consensus?

Harris appears to have resurrected the Democratic coalition that won Obama and Biden the presidency.

But those of us who witnessed the 2016 election earthquake, when Hillary Clinton was so confident of victory and then lost, will approach tonight with a great deal of humility.

We will never forget that there is deep frustration in the American heartland and it can reshape politics, irrespective of the cosy consensus in Washington.

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