What are the swing states deciding the US election - and how do Harris and Trump poll in them?

Credit: AP

By Daniel Boal, ITV News Producer


We are just hours away from the US election, where it will be decided that either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump take the keys to the White House and become the country's 47th president.

The swing state race is on, and it will be down to the voters of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to essentially decide on one of the most consequential elections in US history.

Under the US electoral system, the president is not chosen by popular vote but Electoral College votes. When citizens cast their ballot for president, they are actually voting for one of 538 electors meant to represent the will of the people.

The victor is the first to win a majority of electors - a minimum of 270. Between them, the seven states control almost 100 Electoral College votes.

Five separate times in America's history the Electoral College system has paved the way to the Oval Office for a candidate who lost the popular vote.

And, with Trump and Harris nearly tied up on polls in each of the key battleground states, the pair have been tasked with courting a diverse group of voters with different priorities and political leanings.

All seven states hang on a knife-edge, here we take a look at each state, the feeling on the ground, latest polling data and ultimately how taking each state could crown the next president.

Supporters listen as Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks in Arizona. Credit: AP

Arizona

Arizona has historically been a red-state, but with Trump's Trumpification of the Republican party, rapid population growth and a larger number of young Latino voters, the state has been turned into a desert battleground for the Democrats.

Polling shows Trump has a narrow lead on Harris in the race of the White House, with American pollsters FiveThirtyEight pegging Trump at 51% of the vote and Kamala Harris at 47% in Arizona.

Back in 2020, Trump lost the state by less than 11,000 votes to President Joe Biden. It was the tightest contest in the election and the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had secured Arizona's backing since Bill Clinton in 1996.

A vote in Arizona will also hinge on the fundamental right to an abortion enshrined in the state's constitution – something that ITV News' US partner CNN believes some 60% of Arizona's voters would be in favour of.

Immigration and the economy are the other issues that will dominate.

Within the state, Harris has a greater pull with women, Latino voters and younger voters. While Trump has a better hold on the male vote - as he does across all seven swing states.

Georgia

Neither Harris or Trump have an established advantage in Georgia, with CNN figures finding that 48% of voters would turn out for Trump, while 47% are leaning towards Kamala Harris.

Biden defeated Trump by less than 1 percentage point in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.

It was in Georgia that alleged election interference landed Trump in one of his four criminal prosecutions. Trump, alongside 18 others, are accused of conspiring to overturn his defeat.

The former president denies the accusations, and his case won't be heard until after the election.

Around a quarter of Georgia's electorate, some two million voters, have already cast their ballot - setting early voting records.

Georgia, like North Carolina, had been hit by Hurricane Helene, leading Americans to turn to local and federal government for decisive leadership and to provide emergency support and rebuild.

In an election year, these responses come under even closer scrutiny. The election will likely be decided in the suburbs, where the Black vote could be critical. Historically, the majority of African Americans have voted Democrat, but over the last few years, Trump has clawed back a small but potentially significant share of their support.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and former first lady Michelle Obama in Michigan. Credit: AP

Michigan

Much like the other six battleground states, more and more voters in Michigan are college-educated and leaning increasingly towards the Democrats.

Out of all the other states hanging on a razor's edge, Michigan is the one most likely to be decided by events outwit of the US.

The 'Uncommitted National Movement' in protest of US support of Israel in its war against Gaza is a larger threat to Harris' campaign in Michigan than any other state.

Across the state Harris holds a narrow advantage over her opposite number, with CNN figures suggesting that she could secure 48% to 43% among likely voters.

Of the seven swing states, Michigan is one of two, the other being Wisconsin, that still carries former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr on the ballot.

Kennedy Jr suspended his candidacy and threw his support behind Trump. In Michigan he holds 3% support among voters, an increment that could push Trump past Harris.

One of the issues that Harris has regularly trailed Trump on has been the economy, a lag that is largely muted in Michigan. CNN stats suggest that just 4 points separate the two when it comes to the economy.

Nevada

In America's gambling capital, the stakes could not be higher for the presidential candidates. For decades, the Democrats have eked out wins by relying on the Hispanic community.

But that vote is not as baked in as it once was.

One of the most pressing issues is the economy, and while business may be booming for the sprawling mega-casinos of Las Vegas, the windfall is yet to reach its workers. Many are feeling the brunt of the cost of living crisis.

ITV News previously met with estate agent Mark Arnold, who showed us a family home that is on the market for £800,000. It has views over the city and the famous strip. It's an example of how many Nevadans are priced out.

It is a crisis where rents are on the rise and starter homes are scarce. While there are those who are wealthy enough to find what they want, many working-class families face a housing crunch.

Arnold said clients are looking at this election through the lens of the housing issue.

Unemployment in Nevada is the highest in the nation, so while some are cashing in, others are losing out. Many are ending up in the extensive labyrinth of tunnels beneath the glitzy casinos of Sin City - where homelessness is another major factor for voters.

Both Trump and Harris have promised to turn things around, with 51% and 47% of voters respectively thinking they're the one to fix Nevada.

North Carolina

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump in North Carolina. Credit: AP

The idea that North Carolina is a swing state is something new. Obama won in 2008 by only 14,000 votes, making it the first time the state went blue in 40 years.

But more diverse and educated voters have moved into its cities, splitting North Carolina's electorate down the middle.

For an easy route back to the White House, a win in North Carolina is critical for Donald Trump. In 2020 Trump got 235 Electoral College votes, leaving him 35 short of victory.

If Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state in the North East, goes his way, he would gain 19 more votes putting him on 254.

At this point, he would need to win two more states to secure victory in all but one scenario. Georgia is worth a massive 16 votes which, along with Pennsylvania, puts Trump on the all-important 270.

On the other hand, losing North Carolina could derail Trump’s run for office. If Harris loses Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, she would likely need the state.

For Trump, he is fortunate that the state usually leans Republican, only voting Democrat twice in recent times.

Hurricane or no, Trump's chances at securing North Carolina largely rely on his base of largely white voters in rural areas. Harris, however, is focused on blocking the former president in North Carolina by pitching her tent as wide as possible.

Appealing to women and the male African-American vote, polls from CNN place Harris at 48% ahead of Trump at 47%.

Pennsylvania

It has been argued that Pennsylvania is the state that can dictate the entire US election. Now, if that seems like a massive oversimplification, that's because it is.

Speaking at a rally last month Trump said: "If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing."

The fifth-most-populous US state, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize left on the board, carrying more electoral votes than any of the seven swing states, with 19.

That's why both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have devoted so much time to campaigning in the Keystone State - the nickname given to this huge almost rectangular slice of middle America.


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Despite containing the two large cities of Pittsburgh in the west and Philadelphia in the east, much of Pennsylvania is rural and conservative.

Democratic Party strongholds in the urban centres counter-act the deep red Trump country elsewhere. It leaves the state finely balanced.

In 2020, Joe Biden carried this state by just 80,000 votes. This time polls suggest it will be even closer. One demographic which will be critical will be the youth vote - 13% of registered voters are under 25-years-old.

Most lean Democrat but Donald Trump has been eroding that solid support. Fury over Biden's handling of Gaza has left some young people vowing to opt out of November's vote.

Wisconsin

An truck passes Trump Vance and Harris Walz campaign signs in Wisconsin. Credit: AP

Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% support her to 45% for Trump, according to CNN figures.

The Badger state as it is otherwise known called the winners of both the 2020 and 2016 US elections with a margin of little more than 20,000 votes on each occasion.

The turnout of trade unions has historically helped the Democrats in Wisconsin, which had long been considered a 'blue wall' state owing to blue wins in the 90s and early 2000s.

The economy has been touted as the top issue worrying Wisconsin residents, and is held among voters as one of the strongest points in Trump's campaign across the US.

In Wisconsin though, Harris trails Trump more modestly on the issue of fiscal responsibility than she does in other states, with just three points separating the two.

Where she wields more voter trust is her handling of democracy, with voters believing she is more honest and trustworthy to the tune of 17 points.

Turnout will be key to either candidate stepping past their rival to claim Wisconsin, with Republicans increasingly focusing on rural votes and young men who are inclined toward conservative politics.


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