Ceasefire or all-out war? Hezbollah's intentions will dictate what happens next
As is so often the case in the Middle East there’s not much middle ground - the choice appears to be either a ceasefire or all-out war.
Soon after the chief of the Israeli military talked up the prospects of an invasion of south Lebanon, rumours began to swirl about a possible three-week ceasefire, just to halt the slide and give peace a little breathing space.
On Thursday, the Israeli PM and his ministers have been denying reports that the truce is a done deal.
Many people in Israel feel they have Iranian-backed Hezbollah on the run and that now is not the time to give up the chase.
Hezbollah and their paymasters in Tehran must be gasping for air and should embrace this ceasefire opportunity.
But for the Israelis to comply, Hezbollah will have to show some good intentions that offer the prospect of displaced Israelis being able to return to their homes near the border, something they’ve been unable to do since October 8.
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In other words, Hezbollah will have to signal a climbdown if this limited ceasefire is to come into effect.
The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has repeatedly said their attacks on Israel won’t stop until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza, and the quest for that has been long and fruitless.
When the Israeli government announced early last week that its focus was switching from Gaza to south Lebanon it said its aim was to get those 60,000 displaced people back home.
Correspondingly, more than 100,000 Lebanese have been displaced on the northern side of the border.
Unlike the stated aim regarding Hamas, there was no mention of destroying Hezbollah.
As Israel's bombardment escalates, there is a school of thought developing that it is the right time to deal Hezbollah a devastating blow.
The chances of a ceasefire are barely 50-50.
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