Exit poll gives Scholz's party tiny lead over far-right in pivotal German vote

The political establishment will be breathing a huge sigh of relief tonight, ITV News Europe Editor James Mates reports


An exit poll has predicted Germany's Social Democrats will just beat the far-right in a pivotal regional vote.

The governing Social Democrat party led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz is predicted to win 31.1% of the votes and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 29.8%.

Around 2.1 million people were registered to vote for a new state parliament in Brandenburg, the state that surrounds the German capital, Berlin.

Sunday’s election was being watched closely for signs about the country’s political direction.

Polls in recent weeks showed the AfD mounting a challenge to the Social Democrats, the party that has governed Brandenburg continuously since German reunification in 1990.

AfD's Brandenburg top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt and Thuringia party leader Bjoern Hoecke. Credit: AP

The Social Democrats, the largest party in Chancellor Scholz’s three-way coalition government, hoped to maintain their stronghold in the face of rising support for parties on the extreme right and left.

A loss by the Social Democrats in Brandenburg would be seen as a bad omen for Scholz, a year before a federal election that is due to be held next September.

Scholz lives in Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg, and German political observers believe the chancellor’s political future will be shaped by the results of Sunday’s vote.

The fate of the Brandenburg governor, Dietmar Woidke, was also hanging in the balance. He made it his goal for his Social Democrats to beat AfD, and vowed to resign should the far right win.

The AlfD won the most votes in the state of Thuringia and also did well in Saxony in elections held at the start of the month.

Dietmar Woidke, Brandenburg's Minister President and Chairman of the SPD in Brandenburg. Credit: AP

A new party founded by a prominent leftist also made a strong impact, while the parties in Scholz’s unpopular national government obtained extremely weak results.

That was the first time the far right won an election in Germany since World War II, and it dealt a heavy blow to Scholz’s centrist coalition.

It also generated concerns in Germany and abroad about the growing support for the extreme right in the largest European Union country and a member of Nato.

As polls were nearing the close in the afternoon, a group of anti-AfD protesters gathered near a restaurant where the far-right party’s supporters gathered to learn of the election results.


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Their chanting and the sound of whistles sought to disrupt the party. One carried a placard “AfD is so 1933” referencing the year Adolf Hitler and the Nazis came to power.

The far-right party has gained support amid a growing backlash to large-scale migration to Germany over the past decade and recent extremist attacks.

Germany’s economy, once a powerhouse, has been weakening, adding to a general feeling of malaise.

Sunday’s vote followed a heated election campaign centred on the issues of migration, internal security and peace.

Both the far right and the new left-wing movement, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, want to end weapons deliveries to Kyiv as Ukraine tries to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion.


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