Israel weaponising the humble pager will rattle Hezbollah - but when will they strike back?

Hundreds of pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah exploded simultaneously across Lebanon and in parts of Syria on Tuesday.

Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have blamed Israel after blasts killed at least nine people and left thousands more injured.

Israel is yet to claim responsibility for the explosions. The country has not previously done so in other attacks.

It comes amid rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, who have exchanged fire across the Israel-Lebanon border since the October 7 attack.

The Israelis cracked Hezbollah’s code.

Security services that managed the incredible feat of turning pagers into bombs would almost certainly have been privy to the messages that appeared on those devices.

As we know from Bletchley Park during World War II, it is a huge asset to be able to eavesdrop on your adversary's communications.

I can think of only two reasons why you would deliberately blow the whole thing up.

The Israelis pushed the button to destroy Hezbollah’s command and control bleeper network either because they are about to launch a big offensive into south Lebanon, or, because they feared their secret infiltration of the pager system had been uncovered, and they may as well close down the operation with a decisive strike against hundreds of operatives.

On Wednesday morning, reputable Israeli journalists are suggesting the reason was the latter.

Whatever the truth, the bleeper attack is a huge blow for Hezbollah and hugely embarrassing.

Of course the big question is how and when they will strike back? Might that retaliation precipitate the full-scale war the world has been fearing for months?

After the Israelis assassinated senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut back in July, the group vowed massive retaliation.

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When nothing happened for several weeks Hezbollah claimed it was waging psychological warfare and that making them wait was making Israelis sweat.

Now, in terms of psych-ops, the tables have been turned.

Not only did Israel successfully mount a clandestine tour de force that provided invaluable intelligence, but it managed to weaponise the humble pager.

That must have rattled a few nerves in the ranks of Hezbollah.

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