More than 39 million could die from antibiotic-resistant infections by 2050, study says
More than 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections between now and 2050, according to new global analysis.
A worldwide study by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) project says “now is the time to act” to protect people from the growing threat of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
The data suggests that more than one million people globally died from drug-resistant infections every year between 1990 and 2021.
The analysis found that deaths from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among children under five fell by 50% during this period.
However, it increased by more than 80% in people aged 70 and older.
The findings, published in The Lancet, stress the need for action, including better infection prevention, vaccination, reducing inappropriate antibiotic use, and research into new antibiotics, to lower the number of AMR deaths that are forecast for 2050.
The study estimates that 1.91 million people could die as a direct result of AMR by 2050, an increase of almost 70% per year compared to 2022 - a 67.5% increase on the 1.14 million deaths in 2021.
Over the same period, deaths involving AMR bacteria are expected to rise by 75%, from 4.71 million to 8.22 million per year.
AMR occurs when bacteria and diseases evolve to no longer respond to drugs designed to treat the infection.
Study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi, team leader of the AMR research team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, said: “Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern.
“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing.”
Dr Kevin Ikuta of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), praised the reduction in sepsis and AMR deaths among young children over the past 30 years as an incredible achievement.
However, he warned that the threat to older people will grow as populations continue to age.
He added: “Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR.”
The study's estimations cover 22 disease-causing pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious conditions, including meningitis and bloodstream infections, across all age groups in 204 countries and territories.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has described AMR as “one of the top global public health and development threats”.
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In a separate piece, also published in The Lancet, experts warned that without immediate action, humanity will face a potentially disastrous escalation in resistance to fungal disease.
Scientists warn that many fungal pathogens, responsible for around 3.8 million deaths annually, are already resistant or quickly developing resistance to antifungal drugs.
Dr Norman van Rhijn, from the University of Manchester, said: “Most people agree that resistant bacterial infections constitute a significant part of the AMR problem.
“However, many drug resistance problems over the past decades have also been the result of invasive fungal diseases largely under-recognised by scientists, governments, clinicians and pharmaceutical companies.
“The threat of fungal pathogens and antifungal resistance, even though it is a growing global issue, is being left out of the debate.”
Meanwhile, a research team at the University of Cambridge is exploring monoclonal antibodies - treatments developed from cloned cells that produce specific antibodies - as a potential solution to AMR.
Their study, published in Nature Communications, showed that these antibodies were able to prevent infections caused by Acinetobacter baumannii, a bacteria linked to hospital-acquired infections.
Further research is needed to understand how the drug works, which could help improve its effectiveness.
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