How could a Vodafone-Three merger affect people's phone bills?
Words by James Hockaday, ITV News producer
A major merger planned between Vodafone and Three UK has raised concerns with the UK's competition watchdog, which is calling on the two networks to make changes to their £15bn deal.
Today the Competition Markets Authority (CMA) has provisionally warned that despite the potential to improve network quality, tens of millions of mobile customers could end up paying more.
Both companies have hit back at the regulator, describing the deal as "pro-growth, pro-customer and pro-competition" and a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform UK digital infrastructure".
How could a potential Vodafone-Three merger affect customers? ITV News explains what we know so far.
What deal has been proposed?
In June last year the Vodafone Group and Three UK's owner, CH Hutchison Group Telecom Holdings Ltd, announced they had agreed to combine their operations to form a new business currently being referred to as "MergeCo".
Under the current terms of the deal, Vodafone would own 51% of MergeCo and CKHGT 49%.
Current Vodafone UK CEO Ahmed Essam would become MergeCo CEO, while Three UK CFO Darren Purkis will take the role of MergeCo CFO.
When will the merger go through?
Subject to approval from shareholders and regulators, the two companies said they expected the transaction to be finalised before the end of 2024.
But it is not yet a done deal, as the CMA has the power to block the merger if its concerns are not adequately addressed.
The watchdog will explore potential solutions to address the issues flagged by the watchdog before a final decision by December 7.
Will customers have to pay more?
The CMA says it has "particular concerns" that "higher bills or reduced services would negatively affect those customers least able to afford mobile services".
Presenting its initial findings of an investigation launched in January, the watchdog also says customers "might have to pay more for improvements in network quality they do not value".
The CMA also warns the merger, as it currently stands, would "negatively impact ‘wholesale’ telecoms customers – Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) such as Lyca Mobile, Sky Mobile and Lebara".
These companies, which lease minutes and data bandwidth from major providers and pass them onto the consumer, typically at a lower price, rely on existing network operators to provide their services.
With the merger reducing the number of big operators from four to three (the other two being O2 and EE), it will be more difficult for these firms to secure "competitive terms and offer "the best details to retail customers", the CMA says.
Inquiry chairman Stuart McIntosh tells ITV News why the CMA has concerns about the deal, and potential ways forward
However, Vodafone and Three UK have said they disagree with the watchdog's suggestions of price rises.
"From the outset, we have been very clear that the merger will not affect our pricing strategy and that all social tariffs will continue to protect the vulnerable," Vodafone said in a statement.
It says the CMA's "price rise assumptions are contrary to the business and investment plans the parties have signed up to", insisting that prices will "either stay broadly the same".
The company says prices may even fall due to "vastly enhanced competitive pressures" between mobile network operators and the MVNOs who use their infrastructure.
It says that currently, 90% of MVNOs (other examples of which include giffgaff and Tesco Mobile) rely on VMO2 or BTEE as their wholesale provider.
Vodafone and Three argue that by bringing a "combined, stronger network" to the market, it will boost competition in the wholesale market by providing "more choice and better quality".
Could mobile services improve?
When Vodafone and Three first announced their merger, they said customers would "enjoy a better network experience with greater coverage and reliability at no extra cost".
The companies said MergeCo "will reach more than 99% of the UK population" with its 5G standalone network, delivering to customers "up to a six-fold increase in average data speeds by 2034".
Vodafone and Three have said they will invest £11bn over 10 years to create "one of Europe’s most advanced standalone 5G networks".
While the CMA agrees to some extent that merger could "improve the quality of mobile networks", it currently considers these claims to be "overstated".
The regulator adds that the merged firm "would not necessarily have the incentive to follow through on its proposed investment programme after the merger".
Who is against the merger?
Unite has been calling on the CMA to block the merger, which would bring some 27 million customers under the same provider.
The trade union says the deal would amount to a "telecoms cartel" which will see higher prices for consumers.
It argues that Three and Vodafone have both already rolled out above-inflation price hikes of up to 14% on monthly plans.
Both Untie and MPs have referred to research by Tommaso Valletti, former chief competition economist at the European Commission, who said that prices could increase by 50% after a merger.
The union also warns that 1,600 jobs could be lost if a merger goes through, in addition to the "brutal" 11,000 global job cuts announced last year by Vodafone.
BT also made its opposition clear when invited to submit its views for the CMA's investigation.
In a lengthy 40-page document, the provider said it would hand Three and Vodafone a "disproportionate share" of the market "unprecedented in the UK and Western European mobile markets", which it argues will "substantially lessen competition and deter investment".
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