Israel and Hezbollah ramp up attacks but a relative equilibrium remains

Since the assassination of Fuad Shukr, the Hezbollah commander killed in a drone strike in Beirut on July 30, Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate.

That retaliation has begun.

Israel says it got indications of an imminent large scale attack in advance and began a wave of strikes across southern Lebanon overnight. Within minutes Hezbollah responded.

Where this goes now rests very much on what the scale of damage is on both sides of the border, what targets are hit, what the civilian cost is.

So far Israeli military strikes appear to have been in the South, avoiding at this point, Beirut or other major cities.

Hezbollah’s statement described missile and drone attacks on a “high value military target” along with other barracks and iron dome positions.

That target has been scoped over many weeks and in Beirut over recent days I was told careful planning for the right target was why no response had yet been forthcoming.

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That it would be was not in doubt and Hezbollah had put in place logistical preparations for a prolonged campaign.

Since October 8, the day after Hamas’ assault on Israel, Hezbollah stepped up its cross border attacks in support of allies in Gaza. Israel has responded in kind.

The clashes have led to military and civilian deaths and the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents in both Lebanon and Israel.

The assaults overnight are by far the largest in scale.

As well as the consequences on the ground what will determine the scale is whether this is limited to a Hezbollah Israeli operation or brings in a multi fronted attack including other Iranian proxies and Iran itself.

Iran has also vowed to avenge the death on its soil of the Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh, blamed on, thought not claimed by Israel just a day after Shukr’s death.

Hezbollah says the first phase of its response is now complete.

That still leaves open the possibility of future operation which risks a dangerous spiral, but also the chance that both sides have made their moves and, for now at least, the status quo could remain.

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