Ukraine's incursion into Russia makes Putin look less man of steel and more man of straw

It's just over a week since Kyiv's forces led a surprise charge across their north-eastern border, correspondent John Ray reports

No one saw it coming. And no one can tell how it’ll end.

Ukraine’s lightning-fast land grab is a gamble that may pay dividends - or end in disaster.

The stakes are high – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is said to have thrown as many as 10,000 of his best troops over the border; fighters and kit he can’t afford to lose.

So far, so better than he might have imagined.

The narrative of the war is dramatically changed. For months, Ukraine’s army has suffered a slow death in the trenches of the Donbas.

Now its marching through Kursk – the first foreign military to do so since the second world war - and Russia’s army hasn't been able to stop them. Not yet, at least.

For Vladimir Putin, who sells himself as the guarantor of Russian security, it is a humiliation; tens of thousands of his citizens are fleeing; he looks less man of steel and more man of straw.

Kyiv has also sent a powerful message to Washington and the rest of its western allies – back us and victories are possible. There’s a US election in November. The timing is relevant.

What hasn’t happened – again at least not yet - is a significant switch of Russian forces away from the decisive battles in the east of Ukraine and into the defence of their own territory. That was among Ukraine’s strategic goals. Putin insists it won’t happen.

For Kyiv, the worst case scenario would see its force bogged down and then trapped in Kursk.

But most analysts expect them to try to withdraw in good order – in days or weeks rather than months – having made their point, demonstrating they remain a potent force. And that they can inflict costs and pain on Russia at a time and place of their choosing.

And that might prove useful if mooted peace talks take place.

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