Ukraine's surprise incursion in Russia: How will it affect the war?

Last week, Ukraine began an incursion into Russia's Kursk region, dealing a significant blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The surprise attack has overwhelmed Putin's military, resulting in Ukrainian control of 28 villages and forcing more than 100,000 civilians to flee the area.

Putin has vowed to "kick the enemy out" of Russian territory after officials in Kursk informed him Ukrainian troops had managed to advance 12km into the territory, across a 40-kilometre stretch of the border.

For Ukraine, the raid has provided a much-needed morale boost amid relentless Russian assaults along the extensive 1,000km front line, where its forces are stretched thin.

ITV News takes a look at the Ukrainian incursion and the potential consequences:

How the attack unfolded?

Last Tuesday, several experienced Ukrainian army brigades entered Russia's Kursk region, overpowering border guards and infantry at several checkpoints along the 152-mile border between the two countries.

Russian military bloggers reported Ukrainian mobile units, each with several armoured vehicles, swiftly advanced into Russian territory, bypassing fortifications and spreading panic across the region.

Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Ukrainian forces advanced nearly 19 miles in some directions.

He explained the total area covered by the incursion is estimated to be around 154 square miles. It is unclear how much of that territory they actually control.

The Ukrainian military has extensively used drones to target Russian military vehicles and deployed electronic warfare to jam Russian drones and disrupt communications.

While smaller Ukrainian groups move through the region without seeking to hold territory, other troops have reportedly begun digging defensive positions in areas like the western part of Sudzha, a town about six miles from the border.

How is the Russian military responding?

Russian troops were reported to be caught off guard by the Ukrainian attack.

They struggled to respond quickly, as most of their forces were focused on the offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, leaving the Kursk border area sparsely defended.

Russian military bloggers claim the Russian units, made up of less experienced conscripts, were easily overpowered by seasoned Ukrainian forces.

Putin's military had to rely on warplanes and helicopter gunships to make up for its shortage of troops.

Ukraine managed to down at least one Russian helicopter and damaged another.

Russian reinforcements, supported by Wagner mercenaries - a private military company - have begun arriving in the Kursk region but have so far failed to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Sudzha and other areas.

On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukraine lost 945 soldiers over four days of fighting, but it did not disclose Russian casualties, and the figures could not be verified.

What are Ukrainian authorities saying about the incursion?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the incursion as "purely a security issue for Ukraine," and said his military was retaliating against Russian forces that had launched strikes from the Kursk region.

He added in a video post to his Telegram channel, that attacking Russian positions, airfields, and logistics used to strike Ukraine was “absolutely fair,” and the goal of the mission was the “liberation of the border from the Russian military".

Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, informed the president that Kyiv's forces control 386 square miles of the Kursk region, though this claim could not be verified.

Zelenskyy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak suggested the operation may improve Ukraine's future negotiations with Russia.

"When will it be possible to conduct a negotiation process in a way that we can push them or get something from them? Only when the war is not going on according to their scenarios," he said.

What is Russia saying?

The Russian President described the incursion as a "large-scale provocation" that involved "indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses and ambulances".

Putin suggested Ukraine's attack is an attempt to halt Moscow's offensive in the Ukrainian Donbas region and gain leverage in future peace talks.

Speaking to his top officials on Monday, he vowed Moscow would achieve all its military objectives.

"It’s obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilise the situation in the border zone to try to destabilise the domestic political situation in our country,” Putin said.

"(Russia’s main task is) to squeeze out, drive the enemy out of our territories and, together with the border service, to ensure reliable cover of the state border."

On Monday, the Kursk region's acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, reported 12 civilians had been killed and 121 others, including ten children, had been wounded since the incursion began.

He also said that Ukrainian forces have taken control of 28 settlements and about 121,000 people have been evacuated from the combat areas.

Russia has declared a federal emergency in the Kursk region and launched a counterterrorism operation in Belgorod, and Bryansk, giving local authorities extra powers to manage the emergency and boost security.

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What are Ukraine’s goals and how could the situation unfold?

Ukraine may be aiming to force Russia to divert resources from the Donetsk region, where Putin's forces have made slow but steady progress.

By holding on to Kursk territory, Ukraine could strengthen its position in future peace talks and potentially trade these areas for Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.

The incursion has also shattered the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia has remained unaffected by the war, and sent a strong message to Ukraine's allies that Zelenskyy's military could take control of the war.

However, despite the initial gains, the operation might deplete some of Ukraine’s most capable units and leave troops in Donetsk without crucial reinforcements.

Plus, establishing a lasting presence in the Kursk region could be challenging, as Ukrainian supply lines would be vulnerable to Russian attacks.

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