Ceasefire or conflict?: Middle East tensions reach tipping point
War or peace? This week the Middle East region is poised to take a step closer to one or the other.
That neither Iran nor Hezbollah have retaliated almost a fortnight since the assassinations in Tehran and Beirut is a positive sign.
The passage of time quells anger and allows defences to be put in place. And defences are absolutely critical.
What happens after the retaliatory strikes will be determined by what death and destruction is wrought in Israel, and the effectiveness of defensive measures - as well as the extent of the offensive operation - will dictate that.
The shield that went up to protect Israel against more than 300 incoming Iranian drones and missiles in April was both international and extremely effective.
However, Hezbollah and its arsenal of up to 150,000 rockets and guided missiles are far closer to Israel than Iran is.
And should they unleash a barrage of over a thousand projectiles in one go, inevitably many will get through. But it hasn’t happened yet.
The ceasefire negotiations due to resume on Thursday are a potential ladder that all sides can use to climb down.
On Friday, Iran’s mission at the UN described the quest for a truce as “a priority” and yesterday the leaders of the UK, France and Germany wrote to Tehran warning that any offensive action may jeopardise the quest for peace.
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The Americans maintain that an agreement is both close and achievable but they are also presenting these negotiations as a last chance saloon.
The Biden administration would dearly like to have something to crow about going into the Democratic National Convention next week.
Also, a regional war that might push up gas (petrol) prices during the countdown to November’s presidential election, is a genuine threat to Kamala Harris’ prospects.
A Gaza ceasefire is a cure-all. If the shooting stops there then Hezbollah and the Houthis will also call a halt.
Will Sinwar and Netanyahu agree on terms? Do they both want to? There should be answers to these questions within days.
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